1. Three-point shooting
No surprise here — as Louisville’s three-point shooting goes, so go the Cardinals. It has been feast or famine from beyond the arc. Louisville is one of just four programs nationally with three games of 18 or more made threes and one of only three Division I teams with at least six wins by 40+ points this season.
The Cards rank second nationally with 11.8 made threes per game and have climbed to 61st in three-point percentage at 36.1%. Since Brown’s return, that number has increased to 38.3%. UNC plays more inside-out, averaging 8.4 made threes per game — a figure that would rank as the second-highest in program history.
The key difference lies in UNC’s interior defense. The Tar Heels rank 11th nationally in two-point field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 45.5%, largely due to Veesaar and Wilson protecting the paint. Louisville, meanwhile, ranks ninth nationally in two-point percentage at 60.1%. That strength-versus-strength battle becomes even more intriguing with Wilson out.
The issue? Louisville doesn’t attack the rim often enough, ranking 363rd nationally in two-point attempt rate at just 46.9%. That makes the three ball even more critical.
UNC’s defensive splits are telling. In losses, opponents shoot 52.2% overall and 49.2% from three. In wins, those numbers drop to 38.4% from the field and 30.1% from beyond the arc. That contrast is massive — and it aligns directly with Louisville’s identity.
If the Cards knock down threes at their usual clip and continue their recent defensive form, the opportunity is there for a statement road win tonight.