With the NCAAF regular season officially in the rearview mirror, it’s time to shift full focus to basketball season. There’s nothing quite like the ACC/SEC Challenge to signal the arrival of December. A tradition since 2023, replacing the ACC/Big Ten and SEC/Big 12 Challenges, the event has consistently delivered high-profile matchups over the last three seasons.
After splitting the matchups in its inaugural run in 2023, the ACC went just 2–14 in the Challenge last year. But things shifted Tuesday night when UNC upset Kentucky, and Syracuse stunned Tennessee. The Atlantic Coast Conference already secured six wins on the opening night of games, setting the tone for what could be a much different outcome this season.
That leads us to the marquee matchup for Louisville fans. Louisville basketball will visit No. 25 Arkansas and head coach John Calipari tonight at 7:15 on ESPN. Louisville enters as a 3.5-point favorite against a Razorbacks squad sitting at 5–2 and winless in both games they’ve played against ranked opponents. With the Cards looking to solidify themselves as a legitimate threat this season, another win over a top SEC team would be a significant statement.
Related: 5 undeniable reasons why Louisville basketball will leave Arkansas with a win
3 key weaknesses Louisville will exploit against Arkansas
1. Outrebound Arkansas
In two games against Power Conference opponents this season, Arkansas has lost both and been outrebounded both times. Sometimes the equation is simple: limit second-chance opportunities on defense and generate more of your own on offense. For Louisville, securing rebounds and immediately pushing the tempo has been a proven formula. The Cards like to run, and turning missed Arkansas shots into transition opportunities will put pressure on the Razorbacks all night.
Louisville is averaging an impressive 46 rebounds per game overall and 40.5 rebounds per game in their two matchups against Kentucky and Cincinnati. Arkansas, meanwhile, averages just 37.9 rebounds, and that number plummeted to only 31 per game in their losses. If Louisville controls the glass, they control the tempo—and if they control the tempo, they drag Arkansas into a track meet the Razorbacks aren’t built to win.
2. Take advantage of Arkansas’ defense
Louisville enters this matchup as one of the most efficient and dangerous offensive teams in the nation. Their pace, aggressiveness, and shot-making force defenses to match up quickly and defend all five positions. According to KenPom, Louisville has the No. 2 offensive efficiency rating in the country among 365 teams, a testament to its shooting percentages and relentless attack.
Arkansas isn’t a terrible defensive team, but they certainly aren’t a great one. The Razorbacks allow 71.6 points per game, ranking 148th nationally, despite not facing many elite offenses. Louisville, on the other hand, averages 96 points per game and has dictated pace and scoring against every opponent so far. If the Cards play to their offensive identity, it’s hard to see Arkansas slowing them down enough to keep pace.
3. Win the three-point battle
Finally, Louisville’s three-point shooting is one of its most defining strengths. Of their 65 field-goal attempts per game, 35.6 come from beyond the arc—an unusually high volume for a top-25 team. But the Cards don’t just fire away; they connect at a 37 percent clip, making their perimeter shooting a major reason they remain undefeated and hung 96 points on Kentucky last month.
This spells trouble for Arkansas. The Razorbacks rank 111th nationally in opponent three-point percentage, a clear vulnerability against a team that shoots—and makes—threes at Louisville’s level. Arkansas also attempts 11 fewer threes per game than Louisville and hits them at a lower percentage. On paper, the long-range battle tilts heavily toward the Cardinals. If shooting percentages hold true, Louisville will dictate scoring runs and force Arkansas into an uphill chase for most of the night.