Louisville basketball has made its way through one of the toughest stretches on its schedule. Now, with just one game left against the “big four,” the Cardinals sit at 9-1 after a big win against Indiana last week and Memphis this past Saturday. Louisville still has room to grow, but it is firmly in the conversation with some of the best teams in the country.
The Cardinals now turn their attention to Tennessee. What once looked like a potential top-ten matchup is still a highly anticipated ranked showdown in Knoxville. The Volunteers opened the season 7-0, highlighted by a strong win over Houston in the Players Era Festival, but they have since dropped three straight and now sit at 7-3. Losses to Kansas and No. 14 Illinois are understandable, but the loss to Syracuse was more of a head-scratcher.
Tennessee will host Louisville on Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN. According to FanDuel, Louisville enters as a 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 156.5. With Louisville on the road, it is notable that the Cardinals are favored against an experienced and physical Tennessee team at home. If Louisville is going to leave Knoxville with a win, they will need to protect the basketball and capitalize on some of the weaknesses Tennessee has shown.
3 weaknesses Louisville will exploit against Tennessee
1. Difference in three-pointers made
Much like the Memphis game—and most of Louisville’s games this season—there is a significant gap between these two teams when it comes to three-point shooting. Louisville has made 132 three-pointers through 10 games, an average of 13.2 per game. Tennessee, meanwhile, has made just 74 on the season, good for 7.4 per game. That is a difference of nearly six made threes per contest in Louisville’s favor.
Tennessee does try to offset this by scoring more inside. The Vols have made 215 two-point field goals this season compared to 172 for Louisville, giving Tennessee an advantage of roughly four made twos per game. However, that +8 edge in two-point scoring simply cannot make up for Louisville’s near +18 advantage created by three-point shooting.
If Louisville shoots close to its season averages and Tennessee does the same, the Vols may struggle to keep pace offensively. Look for Pat Kelsey’s up-tempo offense to push the ball early and often, forcing Tennessee outside of its comfort zone if the Cardinals can build an early lead.
2. Points off turnovers
During Tennessee’s three-game losing streak, the Volunteers have been outscored in points off turnovers in all three games. They have averaged just over 12 turnovers per game in that stretch, and many of those mistakes have directly led to easy points for opponents. The clearest example came against Syracuse, where Tennessee lost by just two points but was outscored 24-10 in points off turnovers.
Louisville has only lost the points-off-turnovers battle twice all season. One resulted in the loss to Arkansas, while the other came in a win against Indiana. The Cardinals thrive when they can attack unsettled defenses, particularly after forcing turnovers. If Louisville can capitalize on Tennessee’s mistakes, it could swing this game in a major way.
3. Lack of depth for Tennessee
Tennessee does not have a particularly deep rotation and relies heavily on its top players. Gillespie and Ament carry the bulk of the offensive load, both averaging over 16 points per game, with Estrella being the only other Volunteer scoring in double figures. If Louisville can get one or both of those players in foul trouble, limit their touches, or force the ball out of their hands, Tennessee may struggle to find consistent scoring elsewhere.
Louisville, on the other hand, has four players averaging at least 9.7 points per game, and that depth has become more evident as the season has progressed. With players like Pryor and Khalifa taking on larger roles, the Cardinals are getting scoring from multiple options. If Louisville plays within its offense and can hold either Gillespie or Ament to single digits, the path to a road win in Knoxville becomes much clearer.