Louisville football enters its second Friday night game of the season with a 5–1 record and fresh legs after a much-needed bye week. Following a heartbreaking overtime loss to Virginia two weeks ago, the Cardinals now face their toughest challenge yet: a road trip to take on No. 2 Miami. According to FanDuel, the Hurricanes are favored by 13.5 points, with the total set at 50.5.
If not for the self-inflicted wounds against Virginia — including the 14 points surrendered to the Cavaliers’ defense — this matchup might have featured two ranked teams and a much tighter spread. Instead, Louisville finds itself in the underdog role for the first time this season, hoping to shock the college football world and claw back into the playoff picture.
After a 1–2 performance in the “best bets” column last time out, it’s time to rebound. Both defenses are among the best in the ACC, which makes handicapping this game tricky. Still, there are a few smart angles worth targeting this week.
3 locks for Louisville football vs. Miami Hurricanes
3. Under 50.5 Total Points (-110, FanDuel)
Miami’s defense has been dominant this season, allowing just 68 points in five games — good for 9th nationally at 13.6 points per game. That includes three wins over ranked opponents (Notre Dame, South Florida, and Florida State), who combined to score just 19.3 points per game. The Canes’ front seven has been elite, ranking 14th in rushing defense while allowing only 87.4 yards per game.
Louisville’s defense has quietly been solid as well, sitting inside the top 50 in scoring defense. Both teams’ strengths clearly lie on that side of the ball, and that points to a lower-scoring affair. Miami’s offense, while efficient, isn’t exactly explosive — ranking 35th nationally in scoring.
If the Hurricanes grab an early two-score lead, expect them to slow the tempo and lean on the run game. Considering Louisville’s team total is just 17.5, Miami would need to top 35 points to push this total past 50. That feels unlikely given both defenses’ quality.
The pick: Under 50.5
2. Louisville 1st Half Team Total Under 7.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Louisville’s offensive line and rushing attack have struggled at times this season, and this week they face their toughest test yet against Miami’s top-15 rush defense. That means quarterback Miller Moss and the Cards’ protection unit will have to shoulder the load — not an ideal scenario against an aggressive Miami front. The betting market agrees. Louisville’s team total has dropped from 19.5 to 17.5, signaling sharp money backing the under.
Even if the Cardinals eventually find the end zone, it’s likely to come later in the game. Miami has allowed just one first-half touchdown all season, and that came back in Week 1 against Notre Dame. Of the 68 total points surrendered this year, 49 have come after halftime. The Hurricanes are 5-0 this season at holding opponents under 7.5 first-half points.
Don’t overthink it — until proven otherwise, fade Louisville early.
The pick: Louisville 1H Team Total Under 7.5
1. Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Miami Offense (Odds vary, FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a more player-focused wager, the best value lies with Miami’s offensive playmakers. On FanDuel, the top four favorites to score a touchdown are all Hurricanes before a single Louisville player appears on the board. Louisville’s Isaac Brown leads the way for the Cards at +120, and while he should see more touches with Duke Watson ruled out, there’s no guarantee Louisville reaches the red zone often enough to cash that ticket.
On the Miami side, however, the choices are more reliable. RB Mark Fletcher Jr. (-195) has found the end zone five times in the last four games and remains the safest bet. WR Malachi Toney (-130) offers slightly better value and is coming off a two-touchdown performance vs. Florida State.
For those seeking a plus-money option, RB CharMar Brown (+100) and WR CJ Daniels (+125) have also scored five touchdowns apiece this season. Pick your favorite Hurricane — any of them are far safer bets than banking on Louisville to find the end zone.
The pick: Miami offensive player Anytime TD
Best Bets Recap:
Miami Offensive Player Anytime TD ✅
Louisville 1H Team Total Under 7.5 ✅
Under 50.5 Total Points ✅