Louisville is quietly playing like one of the hottest teams in the country after winning its fourth straight game and improving to 5-2 in ACC play. While some critics could point to the opponents during this current winning streak, Louisville has dominated them regardless. In conference play, any win is a good win, and Louisville has done more than just win, putting together dominant performances against Florida State, Syracuse, Stanford, and Georgia Tech.
Louisville football vs. UNC: how to watch, odds, injuries, more for Week 11 matchup
Moving forward, however, the schedule gets considerably more difficult. The Cardinals finish their regular season on the road against a solid North Carolina team this week, followed by a home matchup against Pittsburgh before traveling to Lexington to take on highly ranked Kentucky. With the competition getting tougher at a crucial point in the season, Louisville also appears to be trending toward playing its best football.
Last week's game against Georgia Tech may have been the closest thing to a complete performance Louisville has put together since its matchup against SMU in September. The defense had one of its best outings of the season, holding Georgia Tech to just 17 points, its lowest total against a Power Four opponent all year. Meanwhile, the offense looked efficient and sharp, scoring on eight of its 10 drives. If Louisville wants to continue building on the momentum it has created over the last month, it will need another strong performance against the Tar Heels this week.
Here are three keys to the game if the Cardinals want to come away with a big road victory.
1. Own the ground game
Since the beginning of the season, Louisville's offense has been built around its ground attack. Running the ball consistently has not only been effective but has also been a major reason for the team's success. The best news for Cardinals fans is that the rushing attack may not have even reached its full potential yet.
Star running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown have yet to play their best football in the same game this season. Last year, Isaac rushed for more than 100 yards in six of the eight games in which he received more than two carries. This season, he has reached the 100-yard mark just three times. In fact, he has more games with fewer than 40 rushing yards than he does with more than 100. Keyjuan Brown has experienced a similar drop in production. He finished last season with five consecutive games of at least 94 rushing yards. Through eight games this season, he has reached that mark just once, with only one 100-yard performance.
Despite the individual production being down, Louisville's rushing attack remains one of the most effective in the country. The Cardinals rank eighth nationally, averaging 228 rushing yards per game. Much of that success comes from the running back room as a whole, along with quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who has added another 43 rushing yards per game.
This week against UNC, that offensive game plan has a chance to be particularly effective. Establishing the ground game on the road is a great way to take the crowd out of the game, and the Tar Heels have struggled to stop the run in their four losses this season. In those games, UNC has been outgained on the ground 768-458, allowing an average of 192 rushing yards per game while managing just 114 themselves.
Under head coach Jeff Brohm, Louisville is also a perfect 10-0 when rushing for at least 250 yards. That further emphasizes just how important establishing the run has been to this program's success. If the Cardinals can do what they do best and consistently move the ball on the ground, they should be able to exploit one of UNC's biggest weaknesses.
2. Win the turnover battle
It is no secret that winning the turnover battle is one of the best ways to win football games. Whether it is the NFL or college football, creating turnovers on defense while protecting the football on offense is typically a strong indicator of which team comes out on top. That has been especially true for Louisville under head coach Jeff Brohm.
In Brohm's three-plus seasons with the program, Louisville has compiled a 22-1 record when winning the turnover battle. That is a pretty telling statistic and one that should make protecting the football a major priority this week.
With Bill Belichick and UNC on the other sideline, taking care of the ball will be especially important. The Tar Heels have struggled in turnover margin this season, sitting at -1 overall, which ranks 76th nationally. In their four losses, that number drops to -3. Louisville, on the other hand, has been much better in this category, ranking 14th in the country with a +7 turnover margin.
It is also a statistic that has played a major role in Louisville's conference results. In the Cardinals' two ACC losses this season, they have a -2 turnover margin. Protecting the football is always high on a team's list of priorities when playing on the road, but it should be an even bigger emphasis this week. Louisville has shown what it can do when it wins the turnover battle, and avoiding costly mistakes could be the difference between extending its winning streak and letting a big opportunity slip away.
3. Unleash the three-headed monster at wide receiver
While running the football has been a clear indicator of how well Louisville's offense is performing, the passing game appears to have unlocked another level over the past couple of weeks. Jeff Brohm has always been good at finding ways to get the ball into his best playmakers' hands, often designing specific plays to create opportunities for them.
Just last week, Brohm dialed up a sweep to wide receiver Tre Richardson that resulted in a 52-yard touchdown. Those are the types of creative plays he uses to get his playmakers involved, and TreyShun Hurry has quickly become another one of those weapons for this Louisville offense.
When wide receiver Lawayne McCoy went down with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out for an extended period, many Cardinals fans worried that he could potentially miss the rest of the season. Losing one of the team's biggest playmakers was a significant concern, especially considering the production McCoy had provided throughout the year.
While his absence was certainly a setback, Hurry has thrived in his expanded role and made big play after big play over the last two weeks. During that stretch, he has accounted for 11 catches, 137 yards, and both of his touchdowns on the season. He also led Louisville in receiving against Georgia Tech last week and was responsible for setting up several of the team's scoring opportunities. On three separate drives, Hurry made plays that moved the Cardinals inside the 10-yard line, setting up touchdowns for his teammates.
The big news heading into this week is that McCoy has been listed as questionable, meaning Kienholz could potentially have another major weapon available in the passing game. If McCoy can return and provide the same production he was delivering before the injury, Louisville could have a dangerous combination with the consistent playmaking of Richardson and the recent emergence of Hurry.
The Cardinals have already shown what their offense can do when the ground game is clicking. Adding three legitimate receiving threats to that equation could make this offense even more difficult to defend. Look for the three-headed monster of McCoy, Hurry, and Richardson to play a major role in Louisville's chances of coming away with another ACC victory.
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