The beginning of ACC play has not gone as well as Louisville basketball fans would have hoped. After dominating California to open conference play, the Cards followed it up with a disappointing loss at Stanford last Friday night. In another game without star guard Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville shot just 22% from three-point range and lost to a Stanford team that had scored only 40 points against Notre Dame in its previous game.
Looking ahead, things do not get much easier. Louisville returns home to face a top-ten Duke team this Tuesday night at 7 p.m. on ESPN. In a rematch of last season’s ACC title game—between two teams that combined for just three ACC losses a year ago—Louisville now finds itself undermanned. With Brown Jr. already ruled out, the Cards will need to play a clean game and shoot exceptionally well if they want to stay competitive. Here’s how Louisville can slow down Cameron Boozer and the Blue Devils.
So, here are three massive keys for Louisville to upset No. 6 Duke Tuesday evening.
1. Outscore Duke at the free-throw line
Louisville is one of the better teams in the country at getting to—and converting from—the free-throw line. The Cards average 18.4 made free throws per game, ranking 45th nationally and second in the ACC behind Stanford. Duke is close behind, ranking 51st nationally and third in the ACC at 18.2 made free throws per game.
In Duke’s two conference wins, they have averaged 23.5 made free throws while their opponents have combined for just 22 total—an average of 11 per game. In both games, which Duke won by an average of five points, the free-throw margin was the clear difference.
Louisville’s numbers tell a similar story in defeat. In the Cards’ three losses this season, they have averaged just 14 made free throws, while their opponents have averaged 22 points per game from the charity stripe. With Brown Jr. sidelined again, Louisville must rely on others to consistently attack the basket. In the four games Brown has missed, Louisville is averaging just 13.75 made free throws on only 18 attempts per game.
Meanwhile, Duke’s free-throw production has increased as of late, making this an uphill battle. If Louisville wants to stay in this game, matching—or outscoring—Duke at the line is essential.