3. Control the game
Duke has not dominated ACC play so far this season the way it did last year. After posting an average conference margin of victory of 22 points in 2024, Duke has won its first two ACC games this season by an average of just five points.
Even with a freshman phenom who could once again be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, Duke looks more beatable. When Texas Tech defeated the Blue Devils two weeks ago, the Red Raiders did not shoot lights out—just 32% from three and 55% overall. They made only 11 free throws and led for just 30% of the game. In Duke’s two ACC wins, they shot 35.6% from three and outscored their opponents 47–22 from the foul line, yet still won by only four and six points.
The takeaway is this: last year, beating Duke required a near-perfect game, and even that was not always enough. This season, a strong—but not flawless—performance might be. The challenge for Louisville is scoring without Brown Jr., as reaching 90 points becomes more difficult.
The good news is that Louisville has already done it. Against Cal, the Cards scored 90 points without Brown, shooting 38% from three and making just 12 free throws. They accomplished that despite losing the turnover battle, points off turnovers, and allowing Cal to shoot 35% from deep.
That kind of offensive output will be necessary again. If Louisville can play within itself, control the pace, and avoid beating itself, the Cards may have more of a chance than many expect.