3 must-win games that will make or break Louisville’s 2025 season

Louisville football's three biggest sleeper games in the 2025 season.
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Louisville football enters the 2025 season with the third-best odds to win the ACC Championship at +850, trailing only Clemson (+115) and Miami (+440). Coming off a year where they lost just three conference games — all by a touchdown or less — the Cardinals appear poised for another run at the ACC title under head coach Jeff Brohm.

While marquee matchups against Clemson (at home) and Miami (on the road) stand out, the season’s true tipping points may come elsewhere on the schedule.

Last season, despite beating Clemson, Louisville fell two games short of the ACC Championship due to a November collapse at Stanford and a high-scoring home loss to Miami. In college football, it's often the unexpected slip-ups — not just the headline games — that define a season.

The 2025 slate is no cakewalk, but it sets up favorably enough for the Cardinals to make another ACC title push. 

3 must-win games that will make or break Louisville’s 2025 season

3. At Virginia Tech – Nov. 1

Louisville is 0–3 all-time on the road against the Hokies, and Blacksburg remains one of the tougher environments in the ACC. Virginia Tech is expected to be a middle-of-the-pack team with a projected win total of 6.5 — just good enough to be dangerous.

This is exactly the kind of game Louisville has struggled with in the Brohm era (think: at Pitt in 2023, at Stanford in 2024). A win here, sandwiched between matchups with Miami and Clemson, would show growth and could be critical to staying on pace in the ACC race.

Related: Louisville football 2025 game-by-game predictions