Louisville football has had back-to-back weeks of disappointment, dropping two straight games to California and Clemson. With only one conference game remaining, the hopes for the Cardinals to make the ACC championship have ended. Now, Louisville is playing for a better bowl game, and this week, playing to cause drama in the current ACC race.
The Cards will travel down to Dallas, Texas, to take on the 7-3 SMU Mustangs. SMU is currently 5-1 in the ACC and needs to win out to have a shot at the conference championship. The Mustangs have shown flashes of greatness and will be tougher than ever to take down this week.
Louisville will have its work cut out for it as it looks to play the villain in SMU’s road to a title, and will have to play almost flawlessly to come out of Texas with a win.
Here are five keys for a Louisville win against SMU.
5. Efficient run game
Louisville has had to lean on Keyjuan Brown in its running game as Isaac Brown has been hurt for the past two games. However, Louisville fans learned that both Brown's are out this weekend, making Duke Watson RB1. Watson has been battling injuries all season, but now it's his time, and he has to rise to the occasion if Louisville wants to win.
This will be no easy task, as the SMU defense is one of the best at defending the run. The Mustangs only allow an average of 102.4 rushing yards per game, and will look to improve that stat against the Cardinals' backup running back.
For Louisville to produce on offense from the get-go, Watson and the rushing offense will have to overcome the stout SMU defense and find a way to get the Cardinals on the board.
4. Stop Kevin Jennings
The SMU quarterback is the real deal. Jennings has thrown for 2,810 yards this season, along with 21 touchdowns. The Mustangs quarterback also isn’t picky about who he throws the ball to, as there are eight SMU receivers with at least one touchdown. He has also done it efficiently, as Jennings has completed 64.8 percent of his passes.
Jennings has also done a bit of work on the ground, with two rushing touchdowns so far this year. Jennings, being a dual-threat quarterback, is something the Louisville defense will need to watch out for.
It’s not easy to disrupt the SMU quarterback either, as he’s only thrown nine interceptions this year. The Cardinals might be able to do so by getting Jennings in the backfield, though, as he has been sacked 16 times this year. If the Cardinals can stop the SMU quarterback, they might truly have a shot at playing the underdog role.
3. Get Chris Bell back in the end zone
There have been two things that are correlated in the last two games. No Chris Bell touchdown and no Cardinal win. Bell has six touchdowns this year and has 871 receiving yards. The Cardinal receiver has proved he can be a focal point of the Louisville offense, but has struggled to score the points to show for it the past two weeks.
Louisville quarterback Miller Moss has made Bell his favorite target as he leads the team in receptions with 67. Moss will need to find Bell early to make sure the Cardinal offense starts the game with the spark it needs.
If Bell can produce against SMU the way he has in the past, Louisville will have a genuine chance to spoil the Mustangs' ACC hopes. However, it will be a long night for the Cardinals if Bell is contained throughout the whole game.
2. Limit Conversions
The Mustangs might not have the greatest third-down conversion rate, as they have converted only about 37 percent of the time. However, the same cannot be said about SMU's fourth-down conversions. They’ve elected to go for it on fourth down 10 times, and have successfully converted on six of them.
A fourth-down conversion can flip the entire momentum of a heated game. With the explosiveness of the SMU offense, they are able to convert on a fourth down no matter how far they are away from the first down marker.
Louisville will have to make stopping the SMU offense when it should be stopped its priority. The Mustangs are too good a team for the Cardinals to give them second chances, and if they do, this game could get out of hand fast.
1. Take care of the football
The Cardinals tend to lose big games when they start turning the ball over. Louisville lost the turnover battle in two of its three losses and tied in the turnover battle in its other loss. These turnovers have come in the form of interceptions and fumbles.
Miller Moss has seven interceptions on the year, and the Cardinals have lost seven fumbles this year as well. Turnovers are already a game killer, and it doesn’t help that SMU forces so many. The Mustangs have 16 interceptions on the year, led by Ahmaad Moses, who has five. SMU’s aggressiveness doesn’t end there, as they have forced eight fumbles this year and have recovered 10.
Arguably, the biggest factor in Saturday’s game will be if Louisville can protect the ball and not give SMU extra chances. If they can pull this off, the Cardinals could walk out of Dallas with a win.