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5. Pat Kelsey’s record as a favorite
By most measures, Kelsey has had a successful first two seasons at Louisville, leading the program to back-to-back 23+ win seasons after the previous two years produced just 12 combined wins. Still, the expectation at Louisville is higher than regular-season success, and winning in March is what ultimately defines a season.
The encouraging sign is that Kelsey’s teams consistently handle business when they are supposed to. In two seasons, Louisville is 44-12 straight up when favored. Of their 17 regular-season losses, 11 came against ranked opponents.
Simply put, Louisville has not lost many games it was expected to win under Kelsey, and facing an unranked USF team fits that trend.