4. Louisville's current spot in NCAA Tournament
Beyond just being favored, Louisville holds advantages in several situational trends. Among the 6 seeds, they are the biggest favorite, with other lines showing the North Carolina Tar Heels men's basketball favored by 2.5 over the VCU Rams men's basketball and the BYU Cougars men's basketball favored by 1.5 over the Texas Longhorns men's basketball. While that doesn’t guarantee anything, it does suggest Louisville may be the most stable of the 6 seeds.
Other trends under Kelsey also support Louisville in this spot. In non-conference games, they are 18-7 over two seasons, including 11-2 this year. They are also 7-2 following a loss this season, which applies after the ACC Tournament defeat. On neutral courts, Louisville is 8-4 under Kelsey, including 4-1 this season.
The rest advantage is another key factor—Louisville has a full week off, while USF played through the AAC Championship on Sunday. With extra rest over the past two seasons, Louisville is 17-3, including 10-2 this year.