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Early Vegas odds raise upset concerns for Louisville ahead of NCAA Tournament opener

Louisville basketball slight favorite over USF in first-round.
Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Louisville basketball secured the No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and the Cardinals will face the 11-seed USF Bulls. Louisville will get the party started on Thursday, as the Cards and the Bulls will tip off in the first round on March 19 at noon local time.

Louisville basketball gets nightmare NCAA Tournament draw in loaded East Region

Louisville hasn’t earned a win in the NCAA Tournament since 2017, and the Cardinals are already a team many are circling on upset alert. Bruce Pearl on CBS Sports immediately dismissed Louisville on the show and said that if Mikel Brown Jr. isn’t available, the Cards are on upset watch.

The odds just were released for the first-round showdown, and while the Vegas Oddsmakers favor the Cardinals, it isn’t extremely comforting for Louisville fans.

Louisville basketball gets a warning from oddsmakers for first-round

The Cardinals enter the showdown as 6.5-point favorites over USF, according to FanDuel. But for the Cardinals, this shouldn’t be comforting. Louisville was also favored against Virginia, Clemson, North Carolina, SMU, Miami, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

The Cards being favored by just 6.5 points shows this game could be an early upset in the NCAA Tournament, and for Louisville fans, this is not the spread they were hoping for. Louisville is seeking its first NCAA Tournament win in eight years, and the USF is no gimme win.

USF was 24-8 overall and 15-3 in conference play, and won its conference tournament. They average 88.3 points per game and give up just 76.2, and they shoot 44% from the field and 33% from downtown. USF is led by its star guard Wes Ennis, who averaged 16.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and shoots40.3% from the field, 36.9% from beyond the arc. But someone Louisville might struggle to guard is their big-time forward Izaiyah Nelson, who nearly averages a double-double at 15.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks, while shooting 56.6% from the field.

So, it is an exciting time for Louisville to be back in the NCAA Tournament, and it is always good to be the favorite, but these early odds don’t give Louisville fans a lot of confidence that they are a shoo-in for the next round.

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For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.

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