The Louisville Cardinals are entering the final stretch of games in the 2026 basketball season, and these final nine games will determine a lot for Pat Kelsey's squad going into March. Louisville basketball will have several opportunities against Quad One teams till the end of the season, and two current ranked teams on the road in North Carolina and Clemson.
Louisville currently sits at 16-6 and 6-4 in the ACC and is looking to finally start stacking wins in the conference, as it did last year. Louisville currently has six quad-one games left on the schedule against NC State, Baylor, SMU, North Carolina, Clemson, and Miami. Louisville will have its chances to prove itself against above-average teams in college basketball. Pat Kelsey and Louisville just have to find a way to win those games.
If Louisville can run the table, things could go very smoothly with Pat Kelsey, but if they lose half of those quad-one games, things could start to sour in Louisville. Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for Louisville:
Worst Case Scenario: 20-11 (9-9)
Louisville's floor for the rest of the season would be to lose most of their games against quad one teams and only beat Wake Forest, Baylor, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse. Only winning four of their last 9 games is very unlikely and, in all likelihood, won't happen, but Louisville will have to play well to avoid getting too close to this number.
The Cardinals have to go on the road and win some tough games, as they still have to play SMU, North Carolina, Clemson, and Miami. This is a great opportunity for Louisville to try and earn a higher seed and boost its resume, but the Cards have struggled on the road against quality teams.
Best Case Scenario: 25-6 (15-4)
If Louisville were to win out the remaining games on their schedule, they would be looking at an 11-game winning streak and two wins over ranked opponents going into the ACC tournament. That is the kind of momentum the Cardinals need going into March, and while Louisville likely won't win out, they could get awfully close with the games they have left.
Louisville has what it takes to win its last nine games, and ESPN Matchup Predictor actually gives the Cardinals the better odds to win as of right now in every game. But it won’t be easy. Louisville's toughest task in this last stretch is the road game against ranked No. 14 North Carolina and No. 20 Clemson. Plus, those other two tough road games against SMU and Miami, who are among the top of the ACC, are fighting for that double-bye seed with the Cardinals.
Pat Kelsey and Louisville will have their work cut out for them if they want to win out, but it is all out there for Louisville heading into March.
Record Prediction: 24-7 (13-5)
While Louisville and Pat Kelsey do have some tough games in their last nine matchups, the Cardinals will likely be favored in all but two of them (UNC and Clemson). We predict Louisville to go 8-1 in the final nine games and will secure huge wins over Clemson, North Carolina State, SMU, and Miami. The Cardinals will also beat Wake Forest, Baylor, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse, but Kelsey seems to struggle against top-25 opponents, so we predict the Cardinals will fall to the Tar Heels.
Pat Kelsey has had Clemson's number since his time at Louisville, and we believe that will continue in 2026 as well. The way North Carolina is playing will make it very difficult to travel to Chapel Hill and beat the Tar Heels on the road. And with UNC having one of the best forwards in college basketball in Caleb Wilson, it could be a long night for the Cardinals against North Carolina.
If Louisville goes 8-1, it would be an impressive stretch, with wins over Clemson, North Carolina State, SMU, and Miami. It would be three big-time road wins and one big home win over four projected March Madness teams. Louisville has the players, coaching, and odds to win a good stretch of games heading into March Madness this season, and only time will tell if Pat Kelsey's Cardinals have what it takes.