Louisville basketball is coming off one of its largest wins of the season as the Cardinals beat Pitt 100-59 over the weekend inside the Petersen Events Center. The Cardinals desperately needed a win like that as they were struggling the past few weeks without Mikel Brown Jr.
Louisville is just 3-3 in its ACC schedule and has a 4-4 record without Brown, and while there is no timeline for when Brown will return, he did just give fans a big update that he is "one step closer" and is practicing again. That said, with Louisville's recent struggles and its midseason skid, the Cardinals have dropped quite a bit in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology since the season started.
Louisville Basketball Bracketology breakdown
Entering the season, the Cardinals had the sixth-highest odds to win the 2025-26 National Title at +2000, but since this midseason skid, Louisville is 13-5 and now has +6500 odds to win their first Championship since 2013. Louisville started the season projected as a No. 3 seed and then moved up to a No. 2 after its win over Kentucky.
However, now that they have gone 4-4 over the last four weeks, Louisville has fallen quite a bit. Pat Kelsey and his Cardinals are now projected to be the No. 6 seed in the South region. Louisville basketball is projected to face the winner of the play-in game between Texas and Ohio State, while, if they look ahead, they see a familiar opponent in Duke as the No. 1 seed in the region.
The South region is loaded with talent in Lunardi's updated projection. If the Cardinals win that matchup against either Texas or Ohio State, the next round would likely be against the projected No. 2 overall pick in the NBA Draft, AJ Dybantsa, and BYU. Then the other top seeds include undefeated Nebraska as the No. 2 seed, the 2025 National Champs in Florida at No. 4, the projected No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, Darryn Peterson, and Kansas at No. 5. And at the No. 1 seed is the projected No. 3 overall pick in the NBA Draft in Cameron Boozer and Duke, who already gave Louisville 27 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and two steals while shooting 80 percent from the field and 75 percent from beyond the arc.
Louisville fans would like to think they will climb these rankings and earn a higher seed than the six-seed, but all that relies on Brown and when he returns. The Cardinals are back home to face Virginia Tech this Saturday, then head to Durham to face Duke again on Jan. 26.
ACC Basketball Bracketology breakdown
Listed below includes Joe Lunardi's current bracket projections for the eight teams that are either in the bracket or listed in the bubble.
- Duke Blue Devils (17-1; ACC, 6-0) - No. 1 seed in the South region.
- Clemson Tigers (16-3; ACC, 6-0) - Stayed at the No. 5 seed in the West region and is predicted to play Liberty.
- Virginia Cavaliers (16-2; ACC, 5-1) - Stayed at the No. 5 seed in the East region and is projected to play George Mason.
- Miami Hurricanes (15-3; ACC, 4-1) - Moved up to No. 8 seed in the Midwest region and is projected to play Seton Hall.
- North Carolina State Wolfpack (12-6; ACC, 3-2) - Remained the No. 9 seed in the West region and is projected to play Saint Mary's.
- North Carolina Tar Heels (14-4; ACC, 2-3). North Carolina dropped to the No. 6 seed in the Midwest region and is projected to play Miami (Ohio).
- SMU Mustangs (13-5; ACC, 2-3) - SMU stayed as the No. 7 seed in the East region and is projected to play Kentucky.
- Stanford Cardinal (14-5 and 3-3) - Stanford is on the bubble and is ranked in the First Four Out.
- Virginia Tech Hokies (14-5 and 3-3) - Virginia Tech is on the bubble and is ranked in the Next Four Out.