When the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement in the NFL created the rookie wage scale and the fifth-year options for first-round draft picks, it had tectonic effects on the value of the most valuable position in sports: the quarterback.
Teams quickly realized what a roster-building cheat code a rookie contract quarterback could be, with their first contract largely set at a pre-determined and cost-controlled rate. Sam Bradford, the No. 1 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, signed a six-year, $78 million deal with the Rams, while the first pick in 2011, Cam Newton, agreed to a four-year, $22 million deal with the Panthers.
The desire to build around a young, cheap QB, in conjunction with the allure of the additional year of control that the fifth-year option presents, has pushed numerous quarterbacks that the league views as second or third-round talents into Round 1, making the second-round QB a rarity.
When former Louisville QB Tyler Shough was drafted with the 40th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, he became just the 13th second-round QB since the 2011 draft (compared to 12 second-rounders from 2000-2010), the first after the new CBA agreement.
Most of those second-rounders were viewed as projects, not likely to start in Year 1. Players like Jimmy Garoppolo, brought to New England to learn behind Tom Brady in 2014, or Jalen Hurts, who in 2020 began his career as something of an insurance policy against Carson Wentz’s erratic play for Philadelphia. Very few are seen as the immediate solution, the way Shough could be in New Orleans.
Only four quarterbacks selected in the second round have started 10 or more games in their rookie season since 2011: Andy Dalton, Geno Smith, DeShone Kizer, and Shough’s predecessor with the Saints, Derek Carr. Carr’s shocking retirement this offseason due to a shoulder injury has paved the way for Shough to be the fifth and first since 2017.
While that group includes three recognizable names who all started NFL games just last season and have combined for nine Pro Bowl appearances, their results in Year 1 paint a grim picture for the start of Shough’s career.
History of second-round QBs to start 10+ games in their rookie season
QB | Draft Year | Starts | W-L Record | TD/INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Andy Dalton | 2011 | 16 | 9-7 | 20/13 |
Geno Smith | 2013 | 16 | 8-8 | 12/21 |
Derek Carr | 2014 | 16 | 3-13 | 21/12 |
DeShone Kizer | 2017 | 15 | 0-15 | 11/22 |
Dalton had the strongest rookie season of the bunch, leading the Bengals to the playoffs and finishing second to Cam Newton in Rookie of the Year voting. However, that type of season doesn’t seem to be in the cards for New Orleans, a franchise in clear decline.
The Saints are a team in desperate need of a rebuild, finally being forced to take their medicine for years of salary cap manipulation, and Shough, in many ways, will pay the price for those past team-building transgressions. However, as Dalton, Smith, and Carr have demonstrated, if he can show enough flashes in Year 1, then he’ll have a long NFL career in front of him.