Louisville basketball will take on Michigan State tomorrow afternoon in a huge round of 32 showdown. The Cardinals were able to outlast USF despite turning the ball over 10 times in the final 10 minutes. Louisville will now try to earn a spot in the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in 10 years, but it will have to do that without Mikel Brown Jr.
Vegas opening line leaves door open for Louisville basketball vs. Michigan State
Louisville learned earlier in the week that the Cardinals would not just be without their star guard for the first round but for the entire weekend, which means he won’t play in this crucial round of 32 showdown against the 3-seeded Michigan State Spartans. So, without Brown, can Louisville advance to the second week of the NCAA Tournament? Well, let's look at some computer models and human predictions.
What experts and computer models say about Louisville without Mikel Brown Jr.
Entering the NCAA Tournament, the Cardinals were the most popular upset pick in the first round, but with the Cardinals proving those doubters wrong, they will now try to do it again. As for the computer models, the majority favor the Spartans entering tomorrow’s game, with the spread opening up to 4.5 points favoring Michigan State, and Evan Miyakawa's model gives Louisville just a 27.8 percent chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
However, Bart Torvik's and ESPN BPI models expect it to be much closer than Miyakawa's model, as Torvik gives Louisville a 45.9 percent chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen and ESPN’s BPI gives Louisville a 51 percent chance of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen, making them the slight favorite in its eyes.
As for the Cardinals' chances to the Elite Eight, all three programs favor UConn: Torvik gives Louisville a 22.5 percent chance, ESPN gives a 26.3 percent chance, and Miyakawa gives a 11.8 percent chance.
As for human predictions, as previously mentioned, the majority of experts and analysts predicted Louisville would lose to USF. Jay Bilas, Seth Greenberg, Rece Davis, Jay Williams, Bruce Pearl, Joe Lunardi, Mike Greenberg, and many others are all the people Louisville has already proved wrong.
Pete Thamel is one analyst who has Louisville going to the Sweet Sixteen, and a big reason is that he predicted North Dakota State to beat Michigan State in the first round, but for right now, he is just one of the few who have the Cards moving on tomorrow afternoon. So, Louisville has already proved a lot wrong by making it to the round of 32, and now they will look to do it against and will try and upset Michigan State and advance to the second week of the NCAA Tournament.
Louisville and Michigan State will tip off tomorrow afternoon at 2:45 p.m. local time with a spot in the Sweet Sixteen on the line.
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