In the preseason, many may have been surprised to see a February “neutral site” game against Baylor on Louisville basketball's schedule. After a second-round exit a year ago, Baylor was picked by many to finish in the middle of a loaded Big 12 this season. Instead, the Bears sit at just 13-11 and 3-9 in conference play following this week’s tough loss to BYU. They are on pace to miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017-18.
Louisville, on the other hand, has clung to a top-25 ranking all season. Winners of four in a row — including a historic win over NC State this week — the Cardinals are trending upward heading into Saturday’s matchup with Baylor.
If taken lightly, Baylor can present problems for Louisville
Both have struggled against ranked opponents, and both rely heavily on high-powered offenses. Louisville’s issues against ranked teams have been well documented — just 2-5 on the season. Baylor has faced six ranked opponents and lost all six. That’s good news for Louisville, which enters ranked No. 24 in the AP Poll.
The second similarity is offensive philosophy. Both teams operate with the mentality of simply outscoring opponents. That approach makes for exciting, high-variance games — they can beat anyone on a given night, but they’re also vulnerable to anyone. Louisville and Baylor both rank inside the top 25 in offensive efficiency (12th and 23rd respectively, per KenPom). That firepower makes Saturday’s 4:00 PM matchup in Fort Worth even more intriguing. Baylor may look like an easy win on paper, but don’t be so certain.
Despite Louisville appearing to be the better team, a deeper dive into the numbers shows this is a matchup that deserves attention. The Bears lost their last two games to No. 7 Iowa State and No. 22 BYU by a combined eight points.
The Iowa State loss came on a three-pointer with one second left in a 69-69 game. Against BYU, Baylor allowed 66 points to just two players but held the Cougars to 3-of-19 (16%) from three-point range. Those are the kinds of losses that define Baylor’s season — close, competitive, and ultimately short.
Even when they shoot well enough to win, they’ve struggled to close against elite teams. In the BYU game, Baylor shot 52% from the field and made 10 threes. On the season, they’re shooting 36.4% from deep while making eight per game. That efficiency stretches defenses and forces opponents to guard the entire floor. Baylor is patient offensively, hunting the best available shot rather than forcing one.
In several statistical categories, Baylor actually shoots the ball better than Louisville. The Bears shoot 36.4% from three compared to Louisville’s 35.5%, and their overall field goal percentage (47.1%) is slightly higher than the Cardinals’ (47.0%).
The key difference is volume. Both teams average over 82 points per game, but they get there differently. Baylor averages 28.7 makes on 60.8 attempts per game. Louisville averages 29.2 makes on 62.1 attempts and scores 87 per contest. The largest gap comes from three-point attempts: Louisville makes roughly 11 threes on 33 attempts per game, while Baylor makes just under nine on 24 attempts.
If Baylor shoots at a high clip early on Saturday, Louisville could find itself playing from behind — not an ideal scenario.
It’s no secret Scott Drew wants to build an early lead. In 24 games this season, Baylor has led at halftime 13 times. They are 13-0 in those games. When tied or trailing at the break, they are 0-11. For a team that relies on efficiency and rhythm, playing from ahead is critical.
That trend mirrors one of Louisville’s weaknesses. Teams that shoot consistently — taking what the defense gives them from two or three — have caused most of the Cardinals’ losses. Five of Louisville’s six defeats have come against teams ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency, with four of those inside the top 30. Baylor ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency and could present the same type of challenge that Tennessee or Arkansas did earlier this season.
Another factor looming large is Baylor’s strength of schedule. According to KenPom, Baylor has faced the toughest defensive schedule in the country. Despite that, the Bears still boast a top-25 offense. Louisville is solid defensively but not built around stopping elite offenses the way some top-ranked teams are.
When adjusting for schedule, Baylor’s net rating ranks 10th nationally. The only top-10 team Louisville has faced is Tennessee — the same Volunteers squad that beat the Cardinals by 21 earlier this season.
Between Baylor’s efficiency, shooting percentages, and battle-tested schedule, this is no ordinary .500 team. Taking them lightly could lead to a damaging loss in March. It may not impact ACC standings, but it would matter for seeding and perception.
Handle business, let Mikel Brown Jr. continue to control the offense the way he has since returning from injury, and this should be a high-scoring game with Louisville coming out on top. If Baylor jumps out early and dictates the tempo, this trip to Texas could become far more expensive than it looks on paper.