Well, today marks the start of March, and the Louisville basketball team sits 20-9 on the season and 9-7 in ACC play. Entering the season, Louisville fans had expectations of being at the top of the ACC and in the conversation about claiming its first ACC Title.
Well, that hasn’t been the season for the Cardinals this year, as Louisville is 0-8 against Quad 1A teams and 0-6 against ranked teams. Louisville fell to Clemson yesterday afternoon, marking the Cardinals' second straight loss and their third loss in the last four games.
Louisville was seed hunting for the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, but it appears the Cardinals are trending in the wrong direction as March approaches. The Cardinals were trying to climb up the March Madness seeds, but after this late February skid, it appears the Cardinals are most likely set to be a No. 6 seed, or maybe even lower.
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Louisville basketball and other ACC Bracketology
Depending on how Louisville finishes the regular season and plays in the ACC Tournament, it feels like the Cardinals are trending to be a No. 6 seed. Joe Lunardi hasn’t updated his full bracket yet, but Louisville is a No. 6 seed as of Feb. 27, and the Cardinals are a No. 6 seed in Bart Torvik's bracket projection.
Torvik's model gives the Cardinals a 75 percent chance of earning their first NCAA Tournament win since 2017, a 35.1 percent chance of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen, a 14.9 percent chance of advancing to the Elite 8, a 6.1 percent chance of making it to the Final Four, 2.4 percent chance of making it to their National Championship, and a 0.7 percent chance of winnig the 2026 National Title.
The season certainly hasn’t gone according to plan, as Louisville had the sixth-highest odds of winning the National Championship entering the season and was once ranked as high as No. 6 in the nation. Now, they will likely fall out of the AP Polls for the first time this season, and will need to find a way to beat Miami on the road and make a run in the ACC Tournament if they want to earn higher than a No. 6 seed.
Other ACC teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament according to Torvik's bracket projection are Duke as a No. 1 seed, Virginia as a No. 4 seed, North Carolina as a No. 6 seed, North Carolina State as a No. 7 seed, Miami as a No. 8 seed, Clemson as a No. 9 seed, SMU as a No. 10 seed, and Virginia Tech and Cal are on the outside looking in in the First Teams out category.
For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.