Pat Kelsey came to Louisville basketball to return the Cards to national prominence. When he arrived nearly two years ago, he introduced the “ReviVille” mantra and preached that every day, every practice, and every game was the most important in program history. He was a coach who had won everywhere he’d been, bringing much-needed energy to a program that desperately needed it.
Now, almost two full seasons later, Kelsey has compiled a 47-15 record, including 27-8 in the ACC. Most fan bases would gladly take that winning percentage—especially after two seasons under Kenny Payne that produced just 12 total wins. But Louisville is not most fan bases, and there is one glaring issue with Kelsey’s tenure so far: he hasn’t won the big games.
Last season, Louisville had just one win against a team that finished the year ranked. The Cards defeated Clemson in the ACC semifinal before falling to Duke in the championship. Outside of Clemson, Louisville went 0-5 against teams that finished ranked during the 2024-25 season. Their other “ranked” win came against then-No. 14 Indiana in November, but the Hoosiers finished 19-13 and missed the NCAA Tournament.
Unfortunately, in 2025-26, it’s been more of the same.
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As February winds down and tournament season approaches, Louisville has zero wins against teams currently in the top 25. Their two “ranked” wins this season came against Indiana, now 17-11 and under .500 in Big Ten play, and Kentucky, which has been ranked for just one week since December. Against the other six ranked teams they’ve faced, Louisville is 0-6.
What’s even more concerning is how they’ve lost those games. Against Arkansas, Tennessee, Duke (twice), Virginia, and UNC, Louisville has an average margin of defeat of 14 points. They’re allowing 82.5 points per game while scoring just 68.5 in those contests. The three-point loss to UNC—without the Tar Heels’ best player, Caleb Wilson—was their closest defeat to a ranked opponent in the last two seasons. In fact, it was the first such loss decided by fewer than nine points.
For a team that averages 86.4 points per game overall, that offensive drop-off is alarming. Some might argue that “off shooting nights” happen, especially for a team that relies heavily on the three-point shot. But it strains belief to think Louisville coincidentally shoots poorly only against ranked opponents.
In those six games, Louisville is 62-for-215 from three-point range—28.8%. In all other games, they’re shooting 38.3%. That kind of drastic difference isn’t random. Good teams are ranked for a reason: they can defend multiple actions and force opponents out of their comfort zones. All six of those opponents rank in the top 30 of KenPom’s NET metrics, and all but Arkansas are top-40 nationally in defensive rating. They make life difficult.
Those teams clearly saw something on film and forced Louisville to create offense outside its preferred rhythm. They’ve pushed the Cards’ best shooters into low-percentage looks—and the numbers show it.
Isaac McKneely, a career 41.4% three-point shooter, is just 10-for-41 (24.4%) in those six losses. Mikel Brown Jr., in three games against those teams, is 9-for-34 (26.5%) from deep. Ryan Conwell is 22-for-68 (32.3%) in those matchups.
These aren’t simply “off nights.” Defensive schemes are dictating terms, stalling what should be an elite offense. The troubling part is that Kelsey doesn’t appear to have an adjustment. It’s been the same issue for two seasons, and Louisville continues to try to shoot its way out of it.
Good teams dictate the game on both ends of the floor. Louisville does that against inferior opponents—and does it well. But against teams of equal or superior talent, the Cards have been consistently outplayed.
Right now, that trend defines the Kelsey era at Louisville.
The silver lining? At a program like Louisville, there are always opportunities to flip the narrative. The Cards still have three major regular-season games remaining before the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. If Kelsey can secure a few Quad 1 wins and make a run in March, much of this will be forgotten.
But if it’s another early exit, it may be fair to reassess what the ceiling truly is under Pat Kelsey moving forward.