The first game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is between Louisville basketball and the Creighton Bluejays. The Cardinals are projected to be one of March Madness's top Cinderella stories, as Louisville basketball has an incredible resume but was severely disrespected.
The Cardinals enter the NCAA Tournament ranked No. 10 in the final AP rankings before March Madness, which means the Cardinals make history yet again this season, but this isn't in a good way. Louisville is the first team to be ranked in the top 10 entering the Big Dance and to fall to an 8-seed in the tournament.
According to ESPN's BPI rankings, Louisville's path to the NCAA Tournament seems much more impressive than the Bluejays'. The Cardinals have had impressive wins over ranked opponents, while Creighton's resume doesn't stand out to most. Creighton illustrates significant weaknesses, and the Cardinals plan to fully expose and dominate the first round in Lexington, Kent.
Louisville basketball is ready to burst Creighton’s bubble
Louisville Cardinals enter the NCAA Tournament with a NET ranking of No. 24. The Cardinals are 6-6 in quality wins and 5-6 against Quad 1 teams. Louisville's resume is impressive, despite what casual fans think.
The Cardinals are ranked No. 10 in the nation for their strength of record, as Louisville has won 21 of its last 23 and has an overall record of 27-7. As for Creighton, the Bluejays are 6-6 against Quad 1 teams, but their strength of record is ranked No. 24, and their NET rating is ranked No. 38 in the nation.
The Cardinals stand out in the Quad 2 category, as Louisville is 11-1 against Quad 2 teams and then 12-0 against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams combined. The Cardinals have been dominant all year long as Louisville basketball has won 19 games this season by 10 points or more, 10 games by 15 points or more, eight games by 20 points or more, four games by 25 or more, and two games by 30 points or more, and their biggest win of the season was by 48 points.
Here is where Creighton slips up. The Bluejays went 5-4 against Quad 2 teams. The Bluejays are a combined 13-0 against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams. The Bluejays' tend to defend behind the arc poorly against the Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. The Bluejay's opponents average 36.7 percent from downtown, including five teams that shot 47 percent or better. Georgetown torched Creighton as they shot 62.5 percent from the three-point line.
This is bad news for Creighton as the Cardinals will live and die from downtown, and with Reyne Smith returning, the Cardinals are set up for success. Louisville averages around 10 threes a game, and Smith by himself averages 3.5.
A Matchup of Strengths and Weaknesses
Another major weakness of Creighton is their tendency to give up long runs. The Bluejays offense can go into a drought of scoring, and leave their defense gassed causing them to give up long runs. EvanMiya.com shared a tweet that labeled the Bluejays as "never trustworthy", while the Cardinals were on the opposite side of the bracket.
The Cardinals are known to go on game-changing runs and take complete control of the game. This usually has to do with defensive stops from Chucky Hepburn and then quick transition threes from Reyne Smith. The Cardinals take a close game and then blow their opponent out of the water in minutes.
Time for a "Kill Shot" graph update! A Kill Shot is any time a team goes on a 10-0 run or better.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 19, 2025
The graph shows how many runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇 pic.twitter.com/Hm6DDFzxRc
Louisville basketball has shown the nation in this second half of the season that they are the real deal. The Cardinal's combination of lethal shooting and lockdown defense will be a tall task for Creighton this Thursday.
Louisville and Creighton will tip off in Rupp Arena, just an hour away from KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals look to pop Creighton's bubble this season, and send the Bluejays home. Tip off is at 12:15 p.m. local time.