Louisville basketball's lead slips in high-stakes battle for nation's No. 1 recruit

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The Louisville Cardinals have become one of the top spots in the nation, thanks to Pat Kelsey's rejuvenation of this program into a national championship contender in just his first year. Kelsey has emerged as one of the best recruiters in the country, as his 2025-26 roster will feature two 5-star recruits and multiple 4-star players.

The Cardinals are in conversation and contact with multiple 5-stars in the class of 2026, but the one player every Cardinal fan is keeping their eyes on is Tyran Stokes. The 6-foot-7, 225-pound small forward is the No. 1 overall prospect in the class of 2026 and was born and raised in Louisville, Ky.

Stokes has been the Cardinal's No. 1 target in the class of 2026 this entire time, as Louisville has been the favorite to land the best player in the class of 2026. However, in recent news, Stokes visited Kansas University, and it is a bit of a concern to Louisville as it appears Stokes's visit went extremely well.

Related: Louisville basketball making a strong push for 2026 5-star PG

Louisville basketball's lead slips in high-stakes battle for nation's No. 1 recruit

Before Stokes visited Kansas, Louisville had a massive lead on every other program in the conversation for the highly recruited prospect. The Cardinals were given a dominant 66.8 percent chance to land the consensus No. 1 overall prospect, while the closest program behind them was Kentucky, with a 1.9 percent chance.

Joe Tipton went on air and reported that the Louisville native is a player that Cardinal fans must keep an eye on. However, after Stokes visited the Jayhawks, On3 updated their prediction for Stokes, which is concerning. While Louisville still is the frontrunner to land Stokes, they dropped from 66.8 percent down to a 42.7 percent chance to land him. Kansas jumped Kentucky and now has the second-best percentage as they are close to the Cardinals with a 37.3 percent chance to land the No. 1 overall prospect.

Stokes' next visit is with the Cardinals' in-state rival, the Kentucky Wildcats. He scheduled an official visit to Mark Pope and the Wildcats for May 15-17. Stokes officially visited Louisville in October 2024, but fans are hoping the 5-star comes back to visit during his massive tour this offseason. Louisville was one of the first teams to extend an offer to Stokes, as it was his fifth offer, made back in November 2022.

The Louisville native eventually moved to Sherman Oaks, Calif., where he is now the star player for Notre Dame High School. According to MaxPreps, Stokes averaged 21.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.5 steals per game as a junior.

Related: 2026 No. 1 prospect, Tyran Stokes, trending towards Louisville basketball

Louisville must continue to be all-in on this massive recruit, especially after he showcased his full potential when he played for Team USA at the U17 World Cup. Stokes earned a spot on the World Cup All-Second Team after he secured a gold medal and averaged 12.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists,1.9 steals, and 1.1 blocks in the tournament.

For all the latest on Louisville basketball's recruiting, stay tuned.