Louisville basketball fell to the SMU Mustangs last night, 95-85, snapping the Cardinals' five-game win streak. Louisville’s record is now 19-7 on the season and 8-5 in conference play, with just five games remaining in the regular season.
Of those five games, three come on the road, with all three road games having major implications for the ACC standings. The Cardinals are set to take on Georgia Tech on Saturday, Feb. 21, and Syracuse on March 3 inside KFC Yum! Center. ESPN Matchup Predictor gives the Cardinals a dominant 97.4 percent chance to beat the Yellow Jackets and a 92.6 percent chance to beat the Orange.
However, the three road games are much more challenging and have much higher stakes after the Cardinals lost to SMU.
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Louisville basketball has minor margin for error for these three games
Louisville is set to take on North Carolina, Clemson, and Miami in its final five games, with all three games coming on the road. The race at the top of the ACC is heating up down the stretch, and with the Cardinals trying to earn a top-four seed and a double bye in the ACC Tournament, these three games on the road have massive implications.
As of right now, Clemson is the 3-seed, Miami is the 4-seed, and Louisville and North Carolina are tied, but the Tar Heels would get the edge for the 6-seed, putting Louisville as the 7-seed. The Cardinals sit 1.5 games behind Clemson for the 3-seed and just one game behind Miami for that coveted 4-seed.
There are five teams fighting for the two final spots in the double-bye, as North Carolina State is still in the mix after beating the Tar Heels by 24 last night. With Louisville still playing Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, the Cardinals have a huge chance to climb these ACC standings, as it certainly appears these head-to-head matchups will determine where the Cardinals fall in the ACC Tournament standings.
Louisville has a 61.1 percent chance of beating North Carolina, a 56.3 percent chance of beating Clemson, and a 66.8 percent chance of beating Miami, according to ESPN’s Matchup predictor. So, while last night's loss to the Mustangs wasn’t ideal and would have helped Louisville creep up the standings and earn a crucial Quad 1 win, the Cardinals still have three opportunities to climb these standings.
Last night's loss didn’t end the Cardinals' chances of earning a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, but it raised the stakes for these three final road games. Louisville will take on Georgia Tech this Saturday at 2:15 p.m. local time, and the first of these three road games will be the Cardinals' trip to Chapel Hill to play North Carolina on Feb. 23 at 7 p.m. local time.
For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.