Louisville basketball gets a crushing update on its No. 1 portal target at the moment, John Blackwell. Louisville is still in the mix for the Wisconsin transfer as the Cardinals are scheduled to host the 5-star transfer this week, but On3 Sports and basketball insider Joe Tipton just gave Louisville fans a gut-wrenching update.
Louisville basketball facing make-or-break moment for John Blackwell amid Duke visit
Duke hosted the 5-star transfer on Monday, and every Louisville fan was just hoping to hear no news. In this situation, no news was good news, and it was trending that way, but then, all of a sudden, around 7 p.m. ET, Tipton and On3 Sports posted an update on Blackwell after the visit, and Louisville fans sank into their chairs.
Tipton officially has logged a prediction for Blackwell in favor of the Blue Devils with a 60 percent confidence level, while the recruiting website updated its prediction on Blackwell’s page, and now Duke has a dominant 99 percent chance of landing his commitment.
Duke lands an official prediction to land 5-star John Blackwell
Louisville basketball isn’t dead yet in the race, as there has not been an official announcement that he has canceled his visit to Louisville yet, but Tipton logging a prediction favoring Blackwell and On3 Sports giving Duke a 99 percent chance of landing his commitment makes it certainly feel like Louisville is trailing big in this race.
“The 6-foot-4 shooting guard took an official visit to Duke on Monday and the Blue Devils are carrying the momentum in this recruitment," Tipton stated in his latest report. "I’ve officially placed an RPM prediction in favor of Duke to ultimately land the star transfer.”
NEW: On3's @JoeTipton has logged an expert prediction for Duke to land Wisconsin star transfer guard John Blackwell😈https://t.co/RCCXGFitCd pic.twitter.com/NhL7umqE8p
— On3 (@On3) April 20, 2026
The Cardinals made a strong push for Blackwell last week when it was reported Pat Kelsey made a trip out to California to visit the Wisconsin transfer after his visit to UCLA. The race for Blackwell was between six schools, as UCLA, Duke, Illinois, Arizona, Alabama, and Louisville all made his final six, but Arizona and Alabama haven’t been involved nearly at all, and Illinois appears to have removed itself from the race after landing Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks, and Andrej Stojakovic announced he will return to the Fighting Illini.
So, now the two ACC powerhouses are battling it out for Blackwell, and Louisville won the first Transfer Portal recruiting battle as the Cardinals beat Duke out for Flory Bidunga, and now it appears Duke is emerging as the heavy favorite for Blackwell.
Kelsey is known to have some portal magic, and if Louisville can get Blackwell on campus, they will have a chance to still land the 5-star, but right now, Tipton and On3 Sports are revealing the Cardinals' ACC rival is the clear frontrunner. Blackwell ranks as a 5-star transfer, No. 3 overall, and No. 1 among shooting guards. He averaged 19.1 points per game last season and made 96 3-pointers on 39 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
Related: Pat Kelsey's latest move just confirmed Louisville isn't dropping out of John Blackwell race
For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's offseason and recruiting, stay tuned.
