Louisville basketball’s chances for huge road win just rose after Caleb Wilson update

Louisville basketball's road test at North Carolina just became more winnable.
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Louisville basketball is slowly climbing in the ACC standings as the Cardinals have rattled off four straight wins, including a historic win over North Carolina State, where they were led by Mikel Brown Jr., who scored 45 points and splashed 10 3-pointers.

The Cardinals started 2-3 in their conference schedule but since that start Louisville now sits sixth in the ACC standings, with major games remaining. Louisville still has massive opportunities to climb in the standings, and one game with major implications is with the No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels.

Louisville fans have had that game circled all season, as the two programs have huge expectations in the middle of February. However, UNC just got crushing news as their star player, Caleb Wilson, will be sidelined for quite some time with a fracture in his left hand.

Related: 3 must-win games for Pat Kelsey and Louisville basketball in final 10 games

Louisville basketball's road test at UNC just became more winnable

The Cards and Tar Heels will tipoff on Feb. 23 from Chapel Hill, N.C., inside the Dean E. Smith Center. Louisville has a 59.5 percent chance of winning this game according to ESPN's matchup Predictor, but with Wilson out for a long period, most likely including the game against the Cardinals, Louisville fans now have an even higher chance.

Wilson is trending to be a top five pick in the 2026 NBA Draft as the former 5-star is having an eye-opening season with the Tar Heels. The true freshman is stacking the stat sheet on both ends of the floor, averaging 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 57.8 percent from the floor.

Wilson was likely to be a huge concern for the Cardinals when these two teams match up as the 6-foot-9, 215-pound forward recently scored 23 points on 66.7 percent shooting from the field and 50-percent shooting from downtown against Duke in the Tar Heels

Louisville hasn't had its best performances against ranked teams in the past two seasons, especially this year. The Cardinals are 2-5 against ranked teams, including a 31-point loss to Duke on the road and a 21-point loss to Tennessee on the road. However, with Wilson now out, Louisville fans should feel confident they can leave Chapel Hill with a win.

For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.

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