Louisville basketball is set to take on the Baylor Bears this weekend as the Cardinals are looking for their fifth straight win. Pat Kelsey has this team gelling as it was in full display their last game when Mikel Brown Jr and Ryan Conwell were unguardable and dominated from start to finish, leading Louisville to a 41-point victory over North Carolina State.
With just eight regular-season games remaining, Louisville is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Cards entered the 2025-26 season with high expectations, aiming to go beyond just making the tournament and secure their first NCAA Tournament win since 2017. Louisville is trending in the right direction to earn that first NCAA Tournament win in nine years, but the Cards are trying to make a push to get a higher seed.
Related: Where Louisville basketball stands in latest ACC standings after four-game win streak
Louisville basketball's next eight games have major implications
The Cards sit 18-6 overall on the season and 8-4 in conference play and are currently ranked No. 24 in the AP Polls. Louisville is trending to be around a 6-seed, according to the Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix ,but Louisville’s four-game win streak has them slowly climbing in the seedings.
The Cards' seed now is an average of 5.98 across 111 brackets. Louisville is ranked as a No. 6 seed in the majority of these Bracketology projections, but with Louisville’s four-game win streak and 41-point win, the Cards have now earned significantly more projections with a 5-seed. According to the spreadsheet, Louisville is projected as high as a 4-seed with its current resume and as low as a 7-seed, but the most common seeds are 5 or 6.
The Cardinals are trying to climb to that 3-seed or 4-seed, and for that to happen, they have to continue this win streak. Louisville has a challenging schedule remaining, with No. 11 North Carolina and No. 20 Clemson on the road, as well as Miami and SMU on the road. With the ACC having much more respect this year, the Cardinals have significant opportunities to climb these seedings.
There is a drastic difference between a 4-seed and a 6-seed, as a 4-seed has a 79.4 percent chance of winning its first game and a 48.1 percent chance of winning its second game, while a 6-seed has a 61.3 percent chance of winning its first game and a 29.4 percent chance of winning its second game, according to Bracket Odds.
Louisville’s four regular-season games stand out, and the ACC Tournament will also give them a huge opportunity. If the Cardinals can finish the season like they did last year and make a run in the ACC Tournament, this team could trend toward being a 3 or 4 seed. However, if Louisville’s streak against ranked teams continues and they struggle against UNC, Clemson, and in the ACC Tournament, they could stay a 6-seed or even fall to a 7-seed.
If the Cardinals can climb to a 3 or 4-seed, this team will have a much more manageable path to the Elite 8 and the Final Four. However, if they stay at a 6-seed or fall to a 7-seed, they will have a much more difficult path.