Louisville men’s basketball is trending up despite a Monday night loss at SMU. They are jockeying for position in the ACC standings with several other teams as the regular season enters its final stretch. One of the biggest reasons for this upward trajectory has been Mikel Brown Jr.'s return. The presumed lottery pick has played at an elite level since returning from injury on January 24th against Virginia Tech.
In his eight games since returning, Brown is averaging 21 points per game and is coming off a scorching three-game stretch of 45, 29, and 29 points. In those same three games, he is a perfect 19-19 from the free-throw line. He has shot 33-55 from the field (60%) during that stretch, including 18-29 from three-point range, good for 62%. Even when expanding the sample size to all eight games since his return, the splits are still impressive: 83% from the free throw line, 44% from three, and 46% overall from the field.
He has done all of this while also averaging five assists and nearly four rebounds per game. If you remove the Duke game, when Louisville scored just 52 points, Brown has led the Cardinals’ offense to just under 89 points per game during his return — a mark that would rank seventh among all 365 Division I programs.
Mikel Brown Jr.'s has one area to work on moving forward
Despite all the positives, the star guard still has room to grow. Prior to Monday’s game, he led Louisville in just one major offensive category: assists. After another 29-point outing, he is now the team’s leading scorer at 18.6 points per game, narrowly ahead of Ryan Conwell at 18.4. His assist numbers stand alone, averaging 5.1 per game, with the next closest being Aly Khalifa at 2.8.
However, the other category he leads the team in is turnovers. Brown averages 3.2 per game, well ahead of Conwell’s 1.9. Turnovers remain the biggest blemish on what has otherwise been a remarkable freshman campaign.
Nationally, his 3.22 turnovers per game rank 22nd among qualifying Division I players. Among the 21 players ahead of him, only three compete in a power conference: Robert McCray V (Florida State), P.J. Haggerty (Kansas State), and Christian Anderson (Texas Tech). The key difference is that none of those players are projected lottery picks in this year’s NBA Draft.
In fact, among the six other players projected to be selected ahead of Brown, he leads them all in turnovers per game. Only three of them average more than 2.0 turnovers, including Duke freshman Cameron Boozer (2.3) and BYU’s AJ Dybantsa (2.9). Brown’s 3.2 per game stands out — and not in a good way.
Even during his electric three-game stretch — when he is averaging 34.4 points, four assists, and 5.6 rebounds — the turnovers remain high. He has committed 15 turnovers in those three games. His 12:15 assist-to-turnover ratio (0.8) in that span would rank near the bottom nationally among qualified players. On the season, his 1.59 assist-to-turnover ratio would place him around 287th nationally if he had enough games to qualify. For a player viewed as one of the top prospects in the country, those numbers are concerning — especially for NBA teams evaluating him as a primary ball-handler.
So far, the turnovers have not consistently cost Louisville games. The clearest example is Monday night’s loss at SMU. Brown had seven of Louisville’s 17 turnovers, while SMU committed just 10. Those extra possessions turned into 21 points for SMU in a 10-point win. If Brown finishes with two or three turnovers instead of seven, Louisville likely has a much better chance to win that game.
The biggest takeaway is that this issue could impact outcomes moving forward. As the season winds down, Louisville faces several teams ahead of it in the standings, including UNC, Clemson, and Miami. They will likely also need to win at least two games in the ACC Tournament to secure a stronger NCAA Tournament seed. As games tighten late and competition intensifies, details like turnovers, rebounds, and free throws often decide outcomes. If Mikel Brown Jr. wants to lead a deep postseason run, cleaning up the turnovers has to be the next step in his development.