Louisville basketball has its final non-conference game of th e2026-26 regular season as the Cardinals will step away from their conference schedule this afternoon and play the Baylor Bears. Louisville is looking for its fifth straight win to secure its 19th win of the season as they try and avoid a middle of February upset against a sneaky good Baylor squad.
Baylor enters this game 13-11 on the season, but with this game being played inside Dickies Arena in Dallas, Texas, the Cardinals can expect mostly Baylor fans today. The Bears have lost two straight, but both were against No. 7 Iowa State (they lost by three) and No. 22 BYU (they lost by five). Baylor is much better than their record indicates, and Kelsey has to make sure he avoids an upset with just eight games remaining.
So, with Louisville set to tip off later this afternoon, let’s break down the final odds and make a prediction.
Louisville basketball vs Baylor odds
The Cardinals are given a 78.1 percent chance of winning this game this afternoon by ESPN’s Matchup Predictor. Louisville currently sits at -6.5 on the spread and is given -315 odds on the moneyline. The Cardinals are the consensus favorite for this nonconference showdown, but Vegas is not saying they are a heavy favorite by anymeans.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel, and as of 7:00 am ET on Saturday, Feb. 14.
Spread: Louisville -6.5
Moneyline: Louisville -315
Over/Under:Â 163.5
Prediction
The Cardinals are playing some of their best basketball as a unit. Yes, Mikel Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell had a combined 76 points last game, but in the previous two games, it was the frontcourt in Sananda Fru and Khani Rooths who stepped up. Pat Kelsey has this group firing on all cylinders at the right time, and while the Bears present problems, the Cards will leave Texas with a win.
Baylor runs a relatively small lineup that will help Louisville dominate the paint and the glass. Rooths and Fru should be players fans should keep an eye on as these two have stepped up their production in the last few games and are clicking at the perfect time, with the postseason just a month away. Baylor has some elite scorers like Tounde Yessoufou, who scored 37 against Baylor, but their tallest player who earns time is 6-foot-9, and everyone else in their starting lineup is 6-foot-5 or smaller.
This heavily favors the Cardinals, as their heavy guard lineup should have a field day and get open looks for Brown, Conwell, and Isaac McKneely, while also using their height advantage in the paint with Fru, Rooth, and J’Vonne Hadley. This will be a close game in the first half, but in the end Cardinals will secure their 19th win of the season.
Prediction: Louisville 87 Baylor 78