Louisville basketball is taking on the Michigan State Spartans in the round of 32 this afternoon. The Cardinals and Spartans will battle it out for 40 minutes, with the winner advancing to the Sweet Sixteen, where they will face either UConn or UCLA.
3 eye-popping stats that prove Louisville will pull off the upset over Michigan State
Louisville secured its first win in the Big Dance since 2017 on Thursday, and helped Pat Kelsey earn his first win in the NCAA Tournament. Now, Louisville will face one of the best teams in the nation in Michigan State and will have to do so without key guard Mikel Brown Jr. Brown will miss his sixth straight game and 14th on the season, and with the Spartans being ranked No. 9 in KenPom rating and No. 11 in the AP Polls, Louisville is going to have to play some of its best basketball.
So, with tip off just hours away and a berth to the Sweet Sixteen on line, let's look at the final odds and make a prediction.
Louisville basketball vs Michigan State odds
The Cardinals enter Saturday’s showdown as slight underdogs, with Michigan State being 4.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel. While Louisville was favored by the Vegas oddsmakers in the first round, they were the most popular upset pick, and the majority of experts predicted them to lose, including Jay Bilas, Jay Williams, Seth Greenberg, and many others. ESPN Analytics raised Cardinals fans' eyebrows, as that model gives Louisville the slight edge, with the Cardinals having a 51.0 percent chance of winning and Michigan State a 49.0 percent chance.
Spread: Michigan State -4.5
Moneyline: Michigan State -210, USF +172
Over/Under:Â 150.5
Prediction
The Cardinals are going to have to take care of the ball and shoot it similarly to last game if they want to beat the Spartans. Louisville has struggled against ranked teams this season, especially in KenPom’s top 20, as the Cardinals are 1-7 against the AP Poll's top 25 and are 0-5 against teams rated in KenPom’s top 20.
Louisville got stuck with a tough draw as Michigan State was underseeded, but now Kelsey and the Cardinals have to dig deep without their best player and try to pull off a big-time upset. The Cardinals are 8-5 in the 13 games without Brown, and while they have big wins over Miami, SMU, and USF in this recent stretch, when they have played teams at that next level and rated in the top 20 without Brown, Louisville is 0-3 and has lost by an average of 13.7 points.
The Cardinals will keep this game close and play with a lot of fight, but Michigan State will win it late.
Prediction: Michigan State 80, Louisville 74