Louisville basketball returns to action this evening in a massive showdown against the Duke Blue Devils. The Cardinals recently dropped in the AP Poll to No. 20 in the nation after losing to Stanford. Louisville has an overall record of 10-3 and a 1-1 mark in the ACC, having defeated Cal in its ACC opener. Pat Kelsey will look to bounce back from their loss to Stanford and will have a big challenge with the No. 6 team in the nation coming into town.
The Cardinals are 2-2 against ranked teams this year, having defeated Kentucky and Indiana but losing to Arkansas and Tennessee. Louisville is 1-0 against ranked teams at home after the Cardinals defeated No. 9 Kentucky at the time, 96-88. This matchup with Duke was circled by every college basketball fan entering the season, but the Cardinals got crushing news Monday their starting point guard, Mikel Brown Jr., is going to be out.
The former 5-star is expected to miss his fifth straight game, as his last game was against Memphis on Dec. 13. With Brown ruled out, the line has shifted to favor the Blue Devils.
Louisville basketball vs Duke odds
The Cardinals reportedly opened as 2.5-point favorites in this marquee matchup, but since Louisville learned Brown is out, the line has shifted to Duke as the slight favorite. The Vegas oddsmakers have now made Duke a 1.5-point favorite. ESPN Analytics has kept Louisville as the slight favorite, as they give the Cardinals a 54.6 percent chance of winning.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel, and as of 7 am ET on Tuesday, Jan. 6
Spread: Duke -1.5
Moneyline: Duke -126 Louisville +105
Over/Under: 162.5
Prediction
Louisville has shown flashes of dominance and brilliance this season when they has Mikel Brown Jr. The former 5-star is expected to be one of the top picks in the 2026 NBA Draft and has averaged over 16 points in the 10 games he played in. However, when Louisville is without its star point guard, this is a different team.
The Cardinals are 9-1 with Brown in the lineup, and are 2-2 when he is out, including their 21-point loss against Tennessee. With Louisville losing to Stanford in its last game, Kelsey is going to have this team ready to go, even without Brown. The Cardinals will need Adrian Wooley, Isaac McKneely, and Ryan Conwell to step up and play some of their best basketball together, as Duke has one of the best resumes in basketball with wins over Michigan State, Florida, and Arkansas.
The Cardinals are going to have KFC Yum! Center rocking and expect this to be a much closer game than their matchups with Arkansas and Tennessee. But without Brown, it is going to be hard to win this game, even at home. Duke has already been battle-tested, and the length and physicality will cause problems for this Cardinals team.
Prediction: Duke 87 Louisville 80