Louisville Cardinals NCAA Tournament stock continues to fall in latest Bracketology

Louisville basketball is 5-5 in its last 10 games, causing the Cardinals' game this afternoon to be labeled a must-win game for many reasons. The Cards are scheduled to take on the SMU Mustangs in just a few hours inside the KFC Yum! Center, and Louisville needs a huge bounce-back performance.

The Cardinals are coming off their 31-point blowout loss to Duke, which has fans and experts raising eyebrows about this team and reanalyzing Pat Kelsey’s squad's true potential. Louisville had extremely high expectations entering the season, but unfortunately, Louisville just hasn’t lived up to those expectations as they are 14-6 through 20 games, including a 0-5 record against ranked teams.

Fox recently updated its Bracketology, and Louisville’s mid-season skid continues to hurt the Cardinals, as the Cardinals reached their lowest seed yet in a prediction, making this afternoon a must-win game.

Louisville basketball continues to fall in updated Bracketology

Fox updated its 2026 NCAA Tournament prediction, and Louisville is now a No. 8 seed in the Midwest region. Louisville was once projected as a No. 2 seed after its win over Kentucky back in November, but with its 5-5 record in its last 10 games, including two blowout losses to Duke and Tennessee, the Cards have plummeted in the rankings and seedings.

In the Midwest, the No. 1 seed is Michigan, followed by Iowa State (2-seed), Houston (3-seed), North Carolina (4-seed), Arkansas (5-seed), Alabama (6-seed), Saint Louis (7-seed), and then Louisville would face Saint Mary's, who is the 9-seed.

With SMU projected as a No. 7 seed in the East region in this Bracketology, today marks a massive opportunity for the Cardinals to earn a big ACC win. Louisville has struggled against ranked teams this year, and while the Mustangs may not be in the Top-25, they were a couple of weeks ago, and are in the AP and Coaches Poll, receiving votes.

There are only 10 regular-season games left after today, and the Cardinals need to start making a run at somepoint. Louisville doesn’t have a cakewalk the rest of the way as they will face SMU on the road again, and Miami, North Carolina, and Clemson on the road as well. They also have to face North Carolina State at home, marking four of their last 10 games against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament.

So, Louisville will have some chances to climb up these seedings and AP rankings, but it all starts this afternoon. The Cardinals need to get a win today, and their being projected as low as a No. 8 seed proves that.

For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.