For the first time since 2020, coming off their loss to LSU in the National Championship Game and heading into Trevor Lawrence’s junior season, Clemson is entering the season with legitimate national title aspirations. However, even with one of the country’s top teams and a Miami program that has continued to stockpile talent under Mario Cristobal, the ACC is clearly a notch below the Big Ten and SEC.
The difference between the ACC and the country’s two true power conferences is the depth of College Football Playoff contenders. Beyond even Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, the Big Ten has five more programs that look poised to make a real push for the CFP this season, and the SEC could go 10 or even 11 deep. The ACC, on the other hand, has Clemson and Miami at the top, then a group of four contenders that could sneak in as the league’s second or even third CFP representative.
Here’s a look at the ACC contenders tier, which is led by a team that already proved it can crack the 12-team field.
4 dark horse ACC CFP contenders
Yes, Rhett Lashlee led SMU to the 12-team CFP last season with an 11-win campaign in the program’s first season in the ACC. No, I still do not view the Mustangs as an “elite” program in the ACC, on par with Clemson and Miami. SMU missed Miami on the schedule in 2024 and avoided Clemson until the ACC Championship, the benefits of a bloated league with unbalanced schedules.
This season, SMU makes a trip to Death Valley and hosts Miami two weeks later. Lashlee was able to retain quarterback Kevin Jennings for another season as his starter, but after his three-interception performance in the CFP, he’ll have to prove he’s trustworthy against high-level defenses, and do it without many of his primary targets from last season.
For the third straight year, Jeff Brohm is entering the season with a transfer portal quarterback leading the way in Louisville. This time it’s USC transfer Miller Moss, an accurate and decisive pocket-passer who was benched by Lincoln Riley last season. It won’t be easy for Moss to replicate the success of Tyler Shough, but with the Cardinals' elite backfield of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson back for another season, along with a talented and finally healthy receiving corps, Louisville should be on everyone’s CFP radar.
Georgia Tech played in arguably the game of the year in 2024, taking Georgia to eight overtimes before finally falling at the hands of their in-state rival. Now, Brent Key is heading into 2025 with the same QB room, led by Haynes King, who was heroic in Athens, and supported by Aaron Philo as much-needed depth behind a reckless, run-first starter.
Along with King, running back Jamal Haynes is back after nearly posting his second-straight 1,000-yard season in 2024, so the Yellow Jackets' offense should be one of the better units in the ACC. If new defensive coordinator Blake Gideon can get the defense to that level, Georgia Tech is a clear dark horse ACC title threat.
Manny Diaz doesn’t appear interested in letting his second chance as a head coach in the ACC slip away. The former Miami Hurricanes head man led Duke to a 9-4 record in Year 1, then took a massive swing in the transfer portal to lure quarterback Darian Mensah away from Tulane after a sensational freshman season.
Diaz will always have his defense in order, so if Mensah can represent an incremental improvement on the offensive side of the ball, then the Blue Devils could potentially convert a relatively soft ACC slate into a CFP berth.