The Cardinals secured the 6-seed in the East region as Louisville basketball will face the 11-seed USF Bulls tomorrow afternoon in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals and Bulls showdown is expected to be a thrilling matchup, and is one many experts are putting Louisville on upset watch.
5 concerning stats that have Louisville basketball on upset watch
Both teams have a similar style of play, as they love to play fast, score in transition, and get hot from beyond the arc. With South Florida averaging 29 3’s per game and Louisville averaging 32 3’s per game, many are anticipating this to be a 3-point battle. However, if Louisville wants to avoid another first-round upset and wants to send the Bulls home, it is clear the secret recipe to a win tomorrow isn’t beyond the arc, but in the mid-range game.
Louisville basketball must make one crucial adjustment against USF
One of the key stats Pat Kelsey looks at is paint touches. With Louisville a 3-point team, paint touches are critical, as they open the floor for the Cardinals beyond the arc. When a guard attacks the paint, it forces the defense to collapse, allowing them to drive and kick to an open shooter. However, for tomorrow’s game, it is clear that Louisville must not just get paint touches; they have to be effective with floaters and in the mid-range.
USF defense is holding opponents to 54.6 percent at the rim, and over the last 10 games, they have improved to 45.5 percent. With Brown not on the floor, Louisville will need to find a way to use mid-range jumpers and floaters, as the Bulls' rim defense is among the best in the nation.
The Cardinals will have a hard time getting open looks from beyond the arc if they aren’t effective in the paint, and USF doesn't allow many points at the rim. While Kelsey and Louisville usually shoot either 3's or layups, the Cardinals will need Adrian Wooley and Ryan Conwell to attack the weak points of USF's defense and hit their mid-range shots or floaters, but Louisville fans know well that isn’t necessarily part of Kelsey’s game plan.
But, if Louisville wants to stick to its season game plan of living and dying from beyond the arc, it should have learned from the ACC Tournament that it needs to be effective in the mid-range area after it shot 12-50 from downtown. If Louisville wants to win its first NCAA Tournament game since 2017, the Cardinals have to find a way to be effective with their floaters and mid-range, despite that not being Kelsey's favorite shot and style of play.
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