The Louisville Cardinals have started their 2026 season in prime position to accomplish something the school has never done, and that is making the College Football Playoff. Louisville beat SMU last weekend and is sitting at 2-1, with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to No. 4-ranked Ole Miss. Entering Week 4 with a No. 16 ranking in the AP Poll is a great place for head coach Jeff Brohm’s squad to be, especially with the toughest part of their schedule now behind them.
Louisville football's most challenging game is crystal clear after SMU win
Through those three games, Louisville has played very well, particularly on offense, where they were able to outscore SMU 41-31 with a second-half comeback. They also came back from 14 points down in the second half against Ole Miss before ultimately losing by just three. The offense has been filled with highlight plays centered around new quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who has more than held his own against two other top-five quarterback prospects already this season.
Louisville football could be even better if it fixes this one glaring issue
The defense has also played well at times. Despite giving up 41 points to Ole Miss and 31 points to SMU, the defense has shown the ability to make stops in critical situations. They are currently tied for sixth in the country among FBS schools with six takeaways on the season. They have won the turnover battle in all three of their games so far and lost for just the first time under head coach Jeff Brohm when doing so. Louisville is now 19-1 under Brohm when winning the turnover battle, with the lone loss being the Ole Miss game in Week 1 of this year.
That is great news for a team that has an offense like Louisville does. Averaging 46 points per game currently ranks 12th in the country and is certainly something that Cardinal fans can point to as a reason that the CFP is a real possibility this season. The combination of a defense that causes that many turnovers and an offense that does not turn the ball over and can consistently put up points is a deadly combination.
The only real issue here is that Louisville has not scored directly off of a turnover all season long. Being plus-six in the turnover margin just three games into the season is a great accomplishment and something that good teams can hang their hats on. Scoring 46 points per game is also something that only good teams can do. However, if you want to be a great team, you need to combine the two and score off of turnovers. Besides being a great way to swing momentum to your side in tight games, it could be the main difference between being 3-0 and 2-1 right now.
Against Ole Miss, the Cardinals’ defense was able to turn over Heisman hopeful quarterback Trinidad Chambliss twice. Considering he had just three turnovers total all of last season, that is a very big deal. With an interception and a forced fumble in the first half off of Chambliss, Louisville came away with zero points. In fact, they went three-and-out after both of those defensive stops. They went into halftime trailing the Rebels 10-6. If Louisville had scored on even one of those possessions, they could have won the game or at least forced overtime.
The SMU game was a little less hurtful because Louisville won the game, and two of the turnovers came at the end of the game when the Cards were up 10 points. Two of the three turnovers were followed by punts by Louisville’s offense, while the last interception was a game-sealer, so Louisville simply ran the clock out. The key difference for Louisville in this game was that they also forced two turnovers on downs against the Mustangs’ offense and then scored touchdowns on both of those drives immediately following those stops. A turnover on downs does not count as a “turnover” on the stat sheet the same way that a fumble recovery or interception does, so they are not counted as turnovers for Louisville.
All in all, Louisville is still in a great position after its first three games of the season, sitting at 2-1 with an opportunity to make it to an ACC Championship game if it simply takes care of business against teams it will be favored against. The problem is that even though Brohm is 5-5 against AP Top 25-ranked teams while at Louisville, he has also lost at least one ACC game as a favorite since coming to Louisville in 2023.
If Louisville wants to avoid the disappointing loss to an inferior opponent, the Cardinals will need to start turning these turnovers into points and put teams away.
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