Louisville football will try to spoil SMU's season this afternoon, as the Cards travel to Dallas to take on the Mustangs at noon local time. The Cardinals are on a two-game losing streak that has eliminated them from the ACC Championship game and removed them from any College Football Playoff conversation.
The Cardinals face a tall challenge this afternoon, as they are without Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown. Louisville's two running backs have been two of their best players all season long, and now Duke Watson will look to take over as RB1. On top of all that, Louisville will be without key linebacker Antonio Watts and possibly quarterback Miller Moss, who is a game-time decision.
SMU is currently 7-3, but 5-1 in ACC play. Both teams have defeated Miami, but the Mustangs are still alive for the ACC Championship game. The Mustangs are going to be hungry in this game, and with the depleted Cardinals, this is going to be a huge challenge for Jeff Brohm's squad.
With kickoff just a few hours away, let's break down the final odds and make a prediction.
Betting odds for Louisville vs. SMU
Odds courtesy of FanDuel, and as of 6am ET on Saturday, Nov. 22.
Spread: SMU -3.5
Moneyline: SMU -178 Louisville +150
Over/Under: 50.5
Prediction
Whether Moss plays or not, the Cardinals' offense is going to rely heavily on Watson and Chris Bell. It is going to be massive to try and get these two stars going early on, and for Louisville's offensive line to show up and provide protection for the quarterback and the rushing attack. The Cardinals' defense will have Stanquan Clark back for his second straight game since being sidelined since the JMU game, and this defense must have one of its best games of the year to give Louisville a chance.
Last year, the Mustangs were led by quarterback Kevin Jennings, who threw for 281 passing yards on 78% completion percentage, while adding 113 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. The Cards' defense must limit Jennings and his legs if they want a chance to win this game, and this offense must try to hit those explosive plays even without their star running backs.
Louisville will keep it close in the first half, and its defense will give this offense a chance to win, but it is hard to envision the Cardinals scoring enough to keep up with SMU. However, if this rushing attack with Watson can be established early, that is when things can get interesting.