Louisville gets crushing update on 5-star Taylen Kinney as commitment coming soon

On3 Sports just gave Louisville basketball fans a crushing Taylen Kinney update.
Brooks Holton / USA TODAY NETWORK

Well, Louisville basketball fans, the updates for 5-star Taylen Kinney keep getting worse and worse. The Cardinals were once the dominant favorite to land the Kentucky native point guard, but since Kinney visited Kansas, it appears many experts are locking him in to be a Jayhawk.

The Louisville Cardinals earned an official visit back in June, and the fans and staff thought it was a near lock that Kinney was going to commit to Louisville. However, Bill Self had a magic trick up their sleeve because since Kinney visited the Jayhawks, it has been all Kansas since.

On3 Sports is one of the biggest recruiting media outlets out there right now, and college basketball fans often use their predictions as far as who is in the race and who is the frontrunner. Well, the Cardinals fans saw their odds plummet recently, and the Jayhawks are now the dominant leader.

Related: Louisville turns up the heat to land 5-star recruits Tyran Stokes and Taylen Kinney

On3 Sports gives Louisville fans crushing update on 5-star Taylen Kinney

Kinney is ranked as high as the No. 13 player in the nation and the No. 1 point guard in the 2026 cycle. The Cardinals are trying to land the No. Point guard in back-to-back recruiting classes, but On3 Sports just gave the Cardinals a crushing update.

On3 Sports once had Louisville with the second-highest percentage, around a 23 percent chance of landing Kinney, and recruiting expert Joe Tipton predicted Kelsey to land Kinney. However, days before the commitment, they updated their percentages, and Kansas has skyrocketed past all other schools, with the Jayhawks now having a 71.9 percent chance of earning his commitment, and Louisville has a 3.5 percent chance. Kentucky has the second-best chance with 7.1 percent.

With Tipton updating his prediction to Kansas, and now On3 updating these percentages accordingly, Louisville fans are beginning to worry that Kinney might truly commit to the Jayhawks over the Cardinals.

The fans are trying to stay optimistic with the commitment date just days away, but with On3 Sports making it feel like Kansas is a landslide favorite, the Cardinals fans are losing hope every day.

Kinney will announce his commitment this Sunday, September 28, at 1:30 p.m. local time on CBS Sports.

Related: Louisville basketball receives gut-wrenching update on 5-star Taylen Kinney

For all the latest on Louisville basketball's offseason and recruiting, stay tuned.

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