Louisville 2025 five-star commit Mikel Brown Jr. is the No. 8 player in the country according to 247Sports Composite and a clear one-and-done candidate. However, the 6-foot-3 point guard could be beginning a longer career than that when he steps on the floor for the Cardinals for the first time in November.
Coming out of the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft, FanSided NBA Draft expert Christopher Kline released his way-too-early 2026 mock draft, and it notably did not feature Brown in the first round. Nine of the first 11 players selected are incoming college freshmen, including Arizona commit Koa Peat and Kentucky commit Jasper Johnson, who are both ranked lower than Brown.
Louisville fans should probably have mixed feelings about this prediction because if Brown does not get selected in the first round next June, then he likely didn’t have the freshman season that many were expecting. However, if he isn’t expected to be drafted in the first round, he’ll almost certainly return to Louisville for a sophomore campaign, and another year with a former five-star would be a massive development for the long-term stability of Pat Kelsey’s program.
Two years of Mikel Brown Jr. could give Pat Kelsey unexpected stability
After leading the Cardinals to a 19-win improvement in his first season, Kelsey is facing major offseason turnover. Roster churn is a constant issue in modern college basketball, but especially for a program that was constructed primarily through the transfer portal. Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr. are both gone, replaced by incoming transfer Adrian Wooley, Ryan Conwell, and Isaac McNeely, two of whom are in their final seasons of eligibility.
Some coaches, most notably Rick Pitino at St. John’s, have abandoned high school recruiting entirely for the annual spin of the transfer portal roulette wheel. Kelsey has decided that Louisville will not be one of those programs, bringing in a top 10 high school class. Still, when your top incoming high school prospect is expected to be one-and-done, it presents the same volatility that veteran transfers do.
Ultimately, though it may mean his freshman campaign was slightly underwhelming, Brown returning to Louisville for a sophomore season would almost certainly be a net-positive. Brown is Hepburn’s clear replacement at point guard, and if he leaves for the league, Kelsey will be back on the hunt once again. The head coach has proven his chops in the portal and on the recruiting trail, so finding another point guard wouldn’t be a problem, but maintain an ACC contender with constant roster churn is a uniquely difficult challenge that very few coaches, even at blue bloods like North Carolina, have been able to overcome.