Pretty much everything about the Louisville basketball program improved in Year 1 under Pat Kelsey. Last season, the Cardinals made a 19-win jump and ended a five-year NCAA Tournament appearance drought with their new head coach.
However, Louisville unceremoniously bowed out in the first round of The Big Dance, in front of a friendly crowd in nearby Rupp Arena, so Kelsey has another step to take before declaring the official return of Louisville basketball.
After constructing last year’s roster primarily through the transfer portal, Kelsey dipped back into the transfer market for three major additions this offseason, but also took a huge swing on the high school recruiting trail, adding five-star point guard Mikel Brown Jr., the second-highest rated prospect in program history.
Brown will have the difficult task of replacing Chucky Hepburn at point guard in Louisville, but his differing play-style and that of Xavier transfer Ryan Conwell, whom Brown will share the backcourt with, could remedy one major weakness and improve this crucial stat for the Cardinals in 2025-26.
The Cardinals fast-break offense must get more efficient with a new-look backcourt
Louisville did not lose to Creighton in the first round of the NCAA Tournament because of a lack of transition scoring. The Cardinals finished with 15 fast-break points in the 89-75 loss, but were dominated on the interior, allowing 36 paint points and 12 second-chance points on just six offensive rebounds.
A performance like that could set off alarms for a program, especially considering the stakes in March, but when it comes against a player like Creighton’s 7-foot-2 center Ryan Kalkbrenner, it can be written off as an aberration. For the season, Louisville finished 71st percentile in paint points allowed per game and 86th percentile in defensive rebounding percentage.
The front court will look much different with center James Scott transferring to Ole Miss, but Kasean Pryor is back for his sixth year after playing just six games last season, and Aly Khalifa, who transferred from BYU ahead of last season, iis appealing an NCAA ruling that deemed him ineligible for a medical redshirt. If Khalifa does not gain eligibility, bigs like Kalkbrenner will punish the Cardinals once again, but there just simply aren’t many bigs like Kalkbrenner, and they tend to punish any defense.
Instead, the biggest focus for improvement should be on the offensive end, particularly the transition offense. Despite playing at a well above-average pace last season, Louisville scored just 8.8 percent of its points on the fast-break and shot 53.8 percent in transition (34th percentile according to CBBanalytics.com). In the final five games of the season, including the first-round loss to Creighton, that number dropped to an alarmingly low 45.6 percent. That stretch coincided with the loss of sharpshooter Reyne Smith, who led the team with 39 transition three-point attempts on the season and knocked them down at a 36 percent clip.
Virginia transfer Isaac McNeely, who shot the three at well over 40 percent last season, was brought in to replace Smith’s shooting, and though McNeely isn’t exactly familiar with pushing the pace from his time in Charlottesville, he’ll provide much-needed spacing as defenses scramble to put a body on him in transition. The bigger difference, however, between last year’s group and the 2025-26 roster, which will hope to improve their transition scoring efficiency, is the ball-handlers.
As a veteran point guard, Hepburn was content to slow the game down and dissect defenses in the half-court. Half-court possessions accounted for nearly 90 percent of Hepburn’s field goal attempts. Brown, as a highly touted true freshman, will likely push the pace, and he’ll have Conwell with him.
The Xavier transfer averaged 4.3 fast-break points per 40 minutes, which was 96th percentile in the country last season. The 6-foot-3 lefty wing is more than comfortable pushing the pace as a ball-handler or running to spot up as a 41 percent three-point shooter. Conwell averages 1.18 points per possession in transition and could be the key to unlocking more up-tempo efficiency for Pat Kelsey next season.
There are clear front-court concerns on Kelsey’s roster, and if they don’t get rectified by an eligibility appeal, then pushing the pace could be one of Louisville’s best responses to mitigate the impact of opposing centers. If they do, and Khalifa is allowed to take the floor when the Cardinals open the season against Kentucky on November 11, then it will still be crucial to ease the decision-making burden on the team’s freshman point guard in the half-court by playing at a faster pace.