Louisville vs Virginia Tech spread is changing fast after Mikel Brown Jr. update

Louisville basketball is set to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies this afternoon inside the KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals are coming off a monster 41-point victory over the Pitt Panthers and are looking to carry that momentum into this afternoon against the Hokies.

Both teams are trending in the right direction to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament, as the Cardinals are projected as the No. 6 seed, while Virginia Tech is on the bubble after winning three of its last four games. Earlier this week, the line favored Louisville by 10.5 points, and late last night the spread changed once again after the Cardinals' injury report was put out.

College basketball fans and Louisville fans quickly realized the Cardinals' 5-star point guard, Mikel Brown Jr., is not listed on the injury report and is immediatley impacting the spread of the game.

Louisville basketball big favorites this afternoon

Louisville entered the game favored by as little of10.5 points, but now the Cardinals are favored by as many as 12.5 points, according to FanDuel. ESPN Analytics also updated its matchup predictor, giving the Cardinals a 92.8 percent chance of winning this ACC matchup.

Louisville has been without Brown since Dec. 13, when the Cards defeated Memphis 99-73, and the 6-foot-5, 190-pound guard had 16 points. Now, it appears Brown is trending in the right direction as Jeff Goodman of The Field of 68 reported the Cardinals' star guard is “expected” to play.

When Brown plays, Louisville is 9-1 and averaging nearly 95 points per game while shooting 38 percent from beyond the arc and 48 percent from the floor. When Brown hasn’t played Louisville, the Cardinals are 4-4, averaging 80 points per game and shooting around 33 percent from the 3-point line.

When Brown is on the floor, Louisville is winning by an average of 30.1 points per game. And while their first 10 games were against weaker opponents, Louisville went 2-1 in its three games against ranked teams, including an eight-point win over Kentucky. Without Brown, Louisville has won just four games by an average of 28.5 points and lost its four games by an average of 11.3 points.

Louisville played three ranked teams without Brown during this eight-game stretch and lost all three, as well as to a non-ranked Stanford team. Brown is the engine of this Pat Kelsey team, as he isn’t just an elite scorer but an elite playmaker. He draws a lot of attention and makes everyone on the floor better.

The former 5-star point guard is averaging 16.6 points, 5.1 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and nearly a steal per game. It isn't official Brown is making his return this afternoon, but according to Goodman, the Cardinals' starting point guard is "expected to return."

For all the latest on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.