Louisville basketball takes on SMU in Dallas tonight at 7 p.m. on ESPN2. The Louisville Cardinals men's basketball team is currently a 4.5-point favorite against the SMU Mustangs and enters having won five straight and seven of their last eight since Mikel Brown Jr. returned. They are 8-4 in league play, while SMU sits behind them at 6-6. Louisville has six teams ahead of them in the standings, but is just one game back of the Miami Hurricanes men's basketball for a double bye in the ACC Tournament.
SMU comes into tonight’s game having lost three of its last five, including a loss to Syracuse Orange men's basketball on Saturday. Despite the recent struggles, the Mustangs still feature a potent offensive attack that can give teams trouble on any night. By mid-February, programs across the country are jockeying for conference and national positioning, and SMU is no different.
On the season, SMU is 17-8 but just 10-15 against the spread. While that is not disastrous overall, they are 4-4-1 as an underdog and 0-1 as a home underdog. Conversely, Louisville is 14-8 as a favorite overall and 2-3 as a road favorite. Most importantly, Louisville is 11-6 in the 17 games Mikel Brown Jr. has played this season. Luckily for the Cards, there is one major reason they will find a way to win this evening.
One glaring reason Louisville will cover vs SMU tonight
Both the Mustangs and Cardinals rank among the nation’s top teams in offensive production. At the most basic level, each averages over 86 points per game this season. In advanced metrics such as KenPom offensive ratings, SMU ranks 16th nationally while Louisville ranks 12th. Those numbers likely explain why this spread is as tight as it is. On paper, this projects as a closely matched offensive battle — and it still could be.
However, a deeper dive into the numbers shows just how much more dangerous Louisville can be offensively. While the Cardinals’ season average sits at 86 points per game, they are averaging 92.5 points in the 17 games Brown has played. That figure would rank first nationally if sustained over a full season. Without Brown in the lineup, Louisville’s offense dipped to just 81.1 points per game.
Defensively, Louisville has also been solid, ranking 84th nationally while allowing 70.9 points per game. When narrowing it to power conference teams (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and Big East), that mark ranks 24th. The bad news for SMU is that its offense has struggled against quality competition. In five games against ranked opponents this season, the Mustangs are 1-4 and average just 76.6 points per game. Louisville’s defense may not be elite, but it is more than capable of supporting an offense that scores over 90 points at its peak.
The other unfortunate reality for SMU is that defense still matters. Among the 365 Division I teams, SMU ranks 254th in scoring defense, allowing 77.6 points per game. Of the 111 teams ranked below them defensively, only 13 are from power conferences. Against power conference opponents specifically, that number rises to 79.6 points per game, which would rank near the bottom nationally. In short, SMU is statistically the second-worst defense in the ACC (ahead of only Florida State) and one of the weaker defensive teams in college basketball overall.
Louisville defeated SMU at home by 14 points just three weeks ago, and there is little reason to believe the matchup suddenly favors the Mustangs. In a game where both offenses are likely to produce, defense should be the deciding factor — and that edge belongs to Louisville.