Louisville football’s 2026 schedule is out, and the Cardinals fans are beginning to realize this schedule is pretty manageable for Jeff Brohm. Louisville won’t have to play the big-dawgs in the conference in Miami and Clemson, and won’t have to play 2025 ACC champions in Duke or the runner-ups in Virginia.
In fact, Louisville plays five of the seven worst teams from the 2025 ACC standings in Syracuse, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Stanford. This is lining up to be the year Louisville should make a run not only to return to their second-ever ACC Championship game, but also to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoffs.
That said, Louisville does have a few games on its schedule in which the fans are circling, and quickly realize there is a three-game stretch that will make or break this season.
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September will make or break Louisville football’s season
The Cardinals have two teams on their schedule in many way-too-early rankings. Ole Miss and SMU are undoubtedly Louisville’s two most challenging games on their 2026 schedule, and it just so happens they are just 14 days apart.
The Cardinals are opening the season against the Ole Miss Rebels, who are coming off a thrilling Final Four run in the College Football Playoffs. When the Cardinals play them, the Rebels, of course, will be led by a new head coach as Lane Kiffin departed to LSU, but it looks like star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is trending to return for a final season. The Rebels are ranked as high as No. 5 in FOX's way-too-early rankings, making this a likely top 25 matchup when the game rolls around.
Louisville will then face SMU in L&N Stadium on Sept. 19 in Week 3 in a crucial ACC showdown. The Cardinals and Mustangs are expected to be two of the top teams in the ACC, and when looking at the Cards' ACC schedule, this is the game Louisville fans quickly have their eyes on. The Mustangs have had their way with the Cardinals in their first two seasons in the ACC, including a dominant 38-6 win in 2025.
If Louisville wants to make a run at the ACC Title, it will have to split these two games at least. Louisville has a “cupcake” opponent in Villanova, sandwiched between these two highly anticipated games, allowing Cardinals fans to at least say the worst-case is they start 1-2. But if Louisville wants to compete for the playoff, they have to start at least 2-1 to set the tone for the rest of the season.
Louisville will also face Georgia Tech and Pitt next season, which will be two big games in November, and the Cardinals will end their season at Kentucky. But if Louisville can start 2-1 and then take care of business against Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Florida State, Syracuse, and Stanford, rattle off those five wins, and head to Atlanta 7-1, then this fanbase will feel pretty good about where their team stands.
On the contrary, if the Cardinals start 1-2, they will feel the pressure they did in 2025 after losing to Virginia and will be in must-win games for most of the season. Louisville would leave room for minimal error the rest of the season, which the Cardinals want to control their own destiny in November when they have to play Georgia Tech on Nov. 6 and Pitt on Nov. 21.
Louisville’s first three games will set the tone for the season, and if the Cardinals can go 3-0, the whole nation will quickly respect them and put them on their radar. If Louisville goes 1-2, all of a sudden, the fans are going to have a lot to say before September 20th. If Louisville is in the middle and splits their two big games and starts 2-1, then the Cardinals earn a big-time win over either Ole Miss or SMU and leave room for error later in the season.
The path is there for the Cardinals. They just have to find a way to start at least 2-1, take care of business against weaker ACC teams, and then win in November against Georgia Tech and Pitt.