Louisville opens Year 3 of the Jeff Brohm era against an FCS opponent, Eastern Kentucky, in Week 1. Then, in Week 2, the Cardinals get a program that recently made the jump to the FBS back in 2022, James Madison. The Dukes have quickly established themselves as perennial Sun Belt contenders, even after the departure of Curt Cignetti for Indiana, and could be a tricky opponent for Louisville to navigate at home on September 5.
The two programs have met once since JMU rose from the FCS ranks, a 34-10 Louisville victory in 2022. Three years later, both programs have changed considerably, and the Cardinals will have to be even more careful to avoid an early-season upset at the hands of head coach Bob Chesney’s Dukes.
Jeff Brohm has to avoid third-and-long against the Dukes
Of course, roster churn in college football means that neither team will be the same as last season, but there are still lessons that we can learn from the areas in which each program, both of which return the same coaching staffs, had a season ago.
Louisville had one of the more efficient offenses in the sport, ranking 14th in EPA/play. However, the Cardinals had a significant Achilles’ heel on third down. With a pressure-averse quarterback in Tyler Shough, Louisville had a late-down success rate of 39.6 percent, which was 18th percentile in the country. Shough’s propensity to throw the ball away and get it out of his hands quickly when sped up made it difficult for the offense to excel in obvious dropback situations, and the 2024 James Madison defense was putting opponents in them all year long.
The 2024 JMU defense was 81st percentile in opponent late-down success rate (38.9 percent) and 98th percentile in average third-down distance at 8.22 yards.
While Miller Moss isn’t quite as pressure-sensitive as Shough, who dealt with injuries throughout his seven-year college career, he is at his best when he can use the threat of play-action to move second-level defenders and slow the pass-rush, an advantage that goes away on third-and-long. Like Shough, he’s not much of a scrambler or second-reaction playmaker, so thriving on early downs will be crucial against the Dukes in Week 2.
The good news is that Louisville will have the upper hand on the ground with Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Arguably, the most electric running back tandem could be in for a big day against a defense that finished 36th percentile in explosive rush rate, allowing one on 7.8 percent of opponents’ rushes.
If Brohm and Moss keep the offense on schedule, Louisville should have no problems knocking off one of the better programs in the Sun Belt, but if JMU can get the Cardinals into third-and-long regularly, it could cause big problems for a new-look offense.