Nearly everything went right for Louisville in its 51-17 Week 1 win over Eastern Kentucky at L&N Stadium on Saturday, but with a dark horse College Football Playoff contender coming to town this weekend, Jeff Brohm may find cause for concern with his offense.
The Cardinals and new quarterback Miller Moss carved the Colonels, managing a 55 percent success rate and nearly 10 yards per play. Sophomore running back Isaac Brown needed only six carries to finish with 126 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Yet, as a unit, Louisville’s offense relied heavily on those explosive plays to move the ball, and if Sun Belt favorite James Madison can limit the big plays, Moss will get his first true test as a Cardinal.
Louisville’s offense is explosive, but will Miller Moss be more consistent against James Madison?
A matchup with an FCS opponent is inherently an outlier, so maybe it’s not worth diving too deep into the numbers from Saturday’s win. Still, Louisville’s lack of efficiency when you remove its five explosive plays is worth monitoring with a much better opponent in town on Friday night.
On non-explosive plays, Louisville managed -0.09 EPA/play and an even more concerning -0.12 EPA/dropback from its quarterbacks, including Brady Allen and Deuce Adams, who both saw playing time after Moss went to the bench. Moss generated 0.22 EPA/dropback and a 55 percent success rate as he threw for 223 yards on 17-for-25 passing with a touchdown and two interceptions.
It’s good that the Cardinals were so explosive in their season-opener. Brown is one of the best running backs in the country, and his dynamism was on full display against an inferior defense. Plus, they were able to be efficient on third downs, even converting a third-and-19 with a 21-yard completion to Antonio Meeks, which was worth 3.55 expected points added (per Gameonpaper.com)
Even if James Madison is the best team in the Sun Belt this season and the Group of Six’s potential representative in the CFP, Louisville will have superior athletes again on Friday and will have opportunities for explosive plays. Moving the ball in chunks isn’t bad, as long as you prove you’re able to be successful offensively without them. That’s what Moss and Brown will need to showcase more in Week 2 because no matter how talented the Cardinals’ backfield is, 7.6 yards per carry and 21.0 yards per carry from Brown will be difficult to replicate.
Moss also needs to limit turnovers as he gets on the same page with his new receivers. A slow start to the season is the risk you run when taking a new transfer quarterback every year, but Brohm is no stranger to that process, and Moss has a bit more leeway before opening up ACC play at Pitt on September 27.