The Louisville basketball team have officially hit a mid-season slump. They are just 5–5 over their last 10 games and have lost three straight against ranked opponents. What was supposed to be a high-scoring, fast-paced offense has become lethargic and, at times, mediocre at best.
Pat Kelsey designed this roster to thrive off high-quality three-point looks created by one of the best point guards in the country. The issue? There was no real backup plan.
Recently, a tweet highlighted the decline in shooting efficiency from several prolific shooters Kelsey recruited to serve as the catalyst for his offense. Players like Ryan Conwell, Adrian Wooley, Isaac McKneely, and Kobe Rodgers all shot high percentages in 2024, but each has seen a noticeable dip this season within Kelsey’s system.
2024 to 2025 3pt%
— Andy Reynolds (@kareyn09) January 14, 2026
Conwell: 41.2% to 36.4%
Wooley: 42.2% to 31.7%
McKneely: 42.1% to 37.7%
Rodgers (23 to 25): 45.0% to 36.8%
When four 40+% shooters all fall off dramatically when they join your team, it's not a slump, it's the offense.
The uncomfortable truth Louisville basketball fans are starting to realize
At first glance, it appears the offensive scheme itself is to blame, as these shooters have experienced sharp declines in their three-point percentages. However, a deeper dive into the numbers tells a different story. These players were shooting the ball well before Mikel Brown Jr.’s injury. It wasn’t until Brown was sidelined that the struggles truly began. The real issue with Kelsey isn’t the system—it’s that he had no contingency plan once Brown was ruled out.
Without Mikel Brown Jr. running the offense, the points simply haven’t come in bunches the way they were designed to. When Brown was healthy, Louisville averaged 94.3 points per game. Since his absence, that number has plummeted to just 77.1.
In the 10 games Brown played, the offense wasn’t just more productive—it was significantly more efficient. Since he’s been out, Louisville has struggled to generate high-quality looks, and the offense has suffered as a result.
At one point, Louisville boasted the top offense in the country. They shot the ball well, took threes at a high volume, and ranked 2nd nationally in offensive efficiency on KenPom. Following Brown’s injury, that ranking has dropped to 11th—a steep decline for a team built around offensive firepower.
The most glaring indicator of this drop-off is three-point shooting. In the 10 games Brown played, Louisville shot 37.5% from beyond the arc as a team, a mark that would rank 26th nationally. With that level of efficiency—combined with the volume of threes they attempt—the Cardinals were among the most dangerous offenses in the country.
During that stretch, Louisville averaged 13.2 made threes on 35.4 attempts per game. Since Brown’s injury, those numbers have fallen to just 9.6 makes on 32.7 attempts per game. That equates to a miserable 29.3 shooting percentage from three—good for 345th in the country. As it stands now, Louisville ranks 176th nationally at 34.25 percent from deep. For a team literally designed to shoot the three, that level of production is a major problem.
As highlighted in the tweet, four key players are shooting well below their career averages entering the season. However, the reality is far more nuanced than that snapshot suggests.
There is a clear line of demarcation for the start of the struggles for all four players—and you’ve probably guessed it by now. It all began on December 16th against Tennessee and has continued through the seven games played without Mikel Brown Jr.
The Cards fans have seen Conwell go from 42 percent (37–88) from beyond the arc to 29.7 percent (22–74) since Brown got injured. Similarly, Wooley saw a decline as he shot 39.4 percent (13–33) from downtown before Brown's injury and now has shot 23.3 percent (7–30) in the last seven games. And star 3-point specialist Isaac McKneely went from 41.1 percent (30–73) to 33.3 percent (19–57).
As the numbers show, each player was shooting right around their previous-year averages before the injury. When you lose a future lottery pick and five-star recruit, there are going to be ripple effects—especially on an offense built around elite shot creation.
Blaming Kelsey’s offensive scheme is the easy answer. The real issue is that there was no secondary plan to keep the offense functional without Brown. When you put all your eggs in one basket, and that basket has back spasms for four weeks, you suddenly have no eggs at all.
For all the latest on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.