Louisville basketball has been the frontrunner for 5-star small forward Tyran Stokes throughout his entire recruiting process, but Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are right on Pat Kelsey's tail and might be emerging as the new frontrunner.
The Cardinals received an official visit from Stokes back in October 2024, and it felt like Kelsey was the dominant favorite to land Stokes. Louisville was once favored to land the nation's No. 1 recruit in the 2026 cycle with a 67% chance, according to On3 Sports. However, after Kentucky and Kansas received visits as well, it has now dropped to 34 percent.
The Cardinals appear to be in a massive recruiting battle with the Jayhawks and Wildcats for Stokes, but after his mom announced he is visiting USC, Gonzaga, and Oregon, the race appears to be growing.
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Louisville’s lead quickly slips away for 5-star Tyran Stokes
CBS Sports college basketball expert Matt Norlander recently put out a report stating that the race is between Louisville, Kentucky, and Kansas. He said Arkansas and USC are rising, but the recruiting battle is between those top three schools, and the "expectation" is he will play for either Kelsey, Pope, or Bill Self.
"As for his recruitment, the teams involved say Stokes values his privacy and is keeping his courtships close to the vest," Norlander wrote in his latest article. "The expectation is he'll wind up playing for one of Kentucky, Louisville, or Kansas (three places he's already visited), but Arkansas and USC are also looming, it seems. No timeline on a commitment decision. He'll be a preseason All-American about 15 months from now."
Stokes, being a Louisville native, is the apparent No. 1 reason why the Cardinals are considered the favorite, but Pope and the Wildcats continue to climb the rankings and are gaining significant momentum. If Pope swipes Stokes from Kelsey, that would be a massive miss for Louisville and would be a considerable sign of where the programs stand, given that Kentucky is landing Louisville natives over the Cardinals.
As of now, Louisville is in a battle with Kentucky and Kansas, according to Norlander. If a program lands a 5-star recruit before Stokes commits, that could be a significant pitch to try to persuade the No. 1 recruit to that program. However, it is also important to remember the Cardinals' home preseason game on Oct. 24 against Kansas.
That matchup could be a big reason if Stokes commits to Louisville. The Cardinals faithful must show out and prove that he should pick the Cards' over the Jayhawks and the Wildcats. The Cardinals' once dominant lead has now slipped right out of their hands, and it is clear the Cardinals are in a huge recruiting battle with Kansas and Kentucky.
It is always good to hear that Louisville is one of the top three programs that Stokes is considering, but the reality is, many fans already knew that. So, now it is crucial for Kelsey to continue pitching Louisville to Stokes and to land the Louisville native over Pope and the Wildcats, to prove that this program is emerging as a National Title contender and one of the best in college basketball.
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For all the latest on Louisville basketball's offseason and recruiting, stay tuned.