Louisville basketball recently defeated the Pitt Panthers 100-59. The Cardinals' 41-point victory marked Louisville’s third-largest win of the season and the fifth time the Cards reached 100 points or more. Entering the 2025-26 season, Louisville fans had extremely high, but realistic expectations for Pat Kelsey and the Cardinals.
Louisville fans are starving for a March Madness run as the Cardinals' last NCAA Tournament victory came in 2017, and Louisville’s last Final Four appearance was in 2013. While Louisville sits at 3-3 through six ACC games, the reality is the ACC is much better this season than last. The ACC only had four teams in the Big Dance last year, as Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, and Louisville all made it.
However, this year the ACC is making a drastic improvement, with eight teams trending to make the NCAA Tournament, and two more teams are either projected to make it or are in the bubble. The Selection Show isn’t until Mar. 15, and while it is just mid-January, it is never too early to start checking where Louisville and others are projected to land.
This week, many media outlets are beginning to amp up their bracketology, including ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. So, let's break down the latest projections not just for Louisville but all ACC teams.
Related: Pat Kelsey says quiet part out loud about Louisville basketball without Mikel Brown Jr.
Louisville Cardinals Bracket Projection
Louisville, as of right now, is projected to be the No. 6 seed in both Lunardi’s and the Field of 68 projected brackets. The Cardinals are making slight improvements in their seeding from a year ago, when they were the No. 8 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. With fans eyeing a Final Four run, the Cardinals are in dire need of a run in the last couple of months.
Our FIRST projected bracket is HERE! 🔥
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) January 19, 2026
Fielding The 68 tips off next Monday and runs EVERY Monday and Friday at 5pm ET through Selection Sunday! 👀 pic.twitter.com/N5CEMCPwC8
The brackets are identical for the Cardinals, as both project Louisville as the No. 6 seed in the East region, facing San Diego State. Also in that region for the Field of 68 projection is Duke (1-seed), Purdue (2-seed), Illinois (3-seed), Texas Tech (4-seed), and Clemson (5-seed).
Duke is the highest projected ACC team as the No. 1 seed, followed by Virginia as the No. 4 seed, Clemson as the No. 5 seed, Louisville and North Carolina as No. 6 seeds, Miami as No. 7 seed, SMU as No. 8 seed, Virginia Tech as No. 10 seed, and Stanford as No. 11 seed.
In Joe Lunardi’s bracket, he has North Carolina State in the Big Dance as the No. 10 seed, while Virginia Tech and Stanford are on the bubble, on the outside looking in. He also has UNC as a No. 7 seed, Miami as a No. 9 seed, and SMU as a No. 7 seed. All the rest are the same as Field of 68.
As of right now, Duke is the dominant favorite to win the ACC with -400 odds, according to FanDuel. Behind Duke are Virginia at +410 and Clemson at +1500. Louisville has the sixth-highest odds at +10000. Twelve teams are given less than one percent chance of winning the ACC.
Louisville takes on Virginia Tech Saturday, Jan. 24 at 3:30 p.m. local time.