Well, one of the best days in sports is finally here as March Madness will tip off shortly, and the Louisville Cardinals will be one of the first teams to take the floor. Louisville basketball will face USF, and with Mikel Brown Jr. out, some fans are much more anxious about this matchup.
5 stats that prove Louisville will beat USF after Mikel Brown Jr.'s injury update
The 6-11 matchup is the first-round matchup every analyst and college basketball fan looks at and likes for an upset, as at least one 11-seed has advanced to the next round and upset the 6-seed in every tournament for 20 straight seasons, including 2024, when three 11-seeds won. However, despite Brown's absence, we are here to tell you why Louisville is the most upset-proof No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The clear reason Louisville basketball will beat USF
When looking at the other 6-11 matchups, there are more eye-popping matchups than the Cardinals and Bulls, or they at least should be. With North Carolina without Caleb Wilson, the whole nation on the Miami (Ohio) wave, and BYU losing four of its last seven, the Cards should be the one 6-seed people should like to move on.
Everyone hears Brown is out, and USF is red-hot, but when it comes to Louisville and their season, Cardinals fans know that against teams outside the top 30, the Cardinals take care of business. Of Louisville’s 10 losses, eight of them come from teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 40.
South Florida is currently ranked No. 48 in KenPom, and it is worth noting that around USF are Indiana, whom Louisville beat by 9; SMU, whom the Cards beat without Brown and beat twice; Cincinnati, whom the Cards beat by 10; and Baylor, whom the Cards beat by 11. So, while many analysts and experts want to talk about the Bulls' winning 11 straight, the reality is that Kelsey built a schedule so when Louisville made it to the Big Dance they would be prepared to avoid a fir-round upset and to make a run.
The Cardinals have played 12 games without Brown, and in those games when they have played teams outside of KenPom’s top 40, they are 6-1 without Brown.And while Louisville, of course, wants Brown to play, they did just earn one of their best wins of the season without him against Miami on the road, and followed it up with a gritty win over SMU in the ACC Tournament.
So, this team has played close, meaningful games and has an impressive resume against teams outside KenPom’s top 40. Looking at the other matchups, fans should be more intrigued to pick Miami (Ohio) over Tennessee, VCU over UNC, or Texas over BYU.
Related: 3 things Louisville basketball fans need to know about the USF Bulls
For all the latest news and updates on Louisville basketball's 2025-26 season and recruiting, stay tuned.