Louisville basketball is set to play USF in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and the immediate reaction from the national media and some Cardinals fans was a big deep breath. Unlike last year, Louisville got the seed it deserved, but this time around, the Cardinals are in a loaded region that features Duke, UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, St. John’s, and UCLA.
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Having to play the No. 11 USF is no easy win, as they have won 11 straight, including the American Conference Championship over Wichita State. While they lost to teams like Alabama, VCU, and Oklahoma State, they played them close and weren’t blown out by any means.
Louisville’s draw with USF might have some Cardinals fans worried, but it favors Louisville for a couple of reasons, and that is, Louisville loves to play fast, and when the Cardinals are supposed to win, they do.
Louisville fans shouldn’t fear USF despite NCAA Tournament upset buzz
Both teams love to shoot beyond the arc, and this will likely come down to who can defend the 3-point range better. The Cardinals need to be prepared to rebound, get out fast, and find Isaac McKneely and Ryan Conwell in transition. Kelsey wants this team to play fast and get out in transition, and with USF shooting nearly 29 3’s per game, the Cards need to expect long rebounds, box out, and get the ball out quickly to Conwell and McKneely.
The two teams have a very similar style of play, but with McKneely and Conwell (and maybe Mikel Brown Jr.) playing on the Cardinal, Louisville fans should think the Cards are in better shape than the Bulls.
The other reason Louisville fans shouldn’t hit the panic button just yet is that when the Cardinals are supposed to win, they simply win. Louisville has struggled against the more physical and better teams. Against ranked opponents and in Quad 1A games, Louisville couldn’t get over the hump and would lose those big games, but in games they were heavily favored or expected to win, Kelsey had this team ready to go, and they would win.
When Louisville is supposed to win, the Cardinals play their best basketball. They play with confidence, and in this game against USF, despite everyone putting Louisville on upset alert, the Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites and have an 81 percent chance of winning according to ESPN Analytics.
Louisville is the better team, especially if Brown is healthy. If the 5-star freshman plays a lot of brackets are going to lose a game early on, and even if he doesn’t play, Louisville has to enter this game going with the motivation of not just trying to win the program's first NCAA Tournament game since 2017, but to prove all these doubters wrong.
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