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Louisville Football: What is UofL’s Ceiling in 2018?

By Presley Meyer

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Louisville football enters the 2018 season with low expectations nationally. We break the season down game-by-game to establish what expectations truly should be.

Expectations are down for Louisville football for the first time in a while. Coming off of what many considered a “let down” season, most national pundits are not keen on the Cards making a run at an ACC title any time soon.

That being said, just as there are seasons where teams are supposed to be great and turn out to be duds, there are also years that exceed expectations.

In Bobby Petrino’s first two years of his second stint, one could say that he exceeded what was expected of him. Particularly in year two for the Cards, Petrino’s team started off 0-3, but knocked off 8 of its last 10 opponents.

What if it’s time to reevaluate expectations for this 2018 squad?

Many pundits have Louisville going 6-6 or 7-5 at best. And, while that is not out of the realm of possibility, many predictions are evaluating Louisville’s floor. What many fail to recognize is that a season can swing from 6-6 to 8-4 on a matter of one or two plays.

Just as Louisville finished a less-than-impressive 8-5 in 2017, they were just a couple plays away from being 9-3. If those “50-50 games” fall the other direction, we are looking at this season in a completely different light.

So, let’s take a look at Louisville’s schedules and examine exactly what should be expected from the 2018 Cards, where their ceiling is, and if there’s any chance in heck of them bursting through that ceiling.

Trending. Top Questions Louisville Football Must Answer This Season. light

Probable Losses

I am high on Louisville’s potential this year, but let’s face the facts. These games would be probable losses for all but maybe three of four teams in the country.

Alabama– Defending National Champs open the season against the Cards. Nick Saban is still undefeated in opening games at Bama, and he normally wins them by a considerable margin. Bama has clobbered opening opponents Florida State and USC the last two seasons.

It won’t take a miracle for the Cards to win, but it is certainly improbable.

at Clemson- Louisville dropped a clunker against the Tigers last season, but aside from that, every game has come down to the final play vs. the Tigers since the Cards joined the ACC.

That said, Clemson is darn good. They have no real weaknesses, and return the best defensive line in the country. Again, no miracles needed to win this one, but hardly anyone wins in Death Valley. Clemson has expected a tough outting from Louisville the past several years with Lamar Jackson at the helm, so maybe Louisville can catch the Tigers and Dabo Swinney slipping this year.

Probable Wins

If Louisville loses any of these games, there will be hell to pay.

Indiana State– This is a win.

Western Kentucky- Bobby Petrino IS walking through that door… But for the other team.

at Virginia- Never say never, but I’m saying probably not.

at Syracuse- Dino Babers’s teams can score with the best of them, and quarterback Eric Dungey is a flat out stud. But his defense is pitiful, and Louisville’s offense is still better than Cuse’s.

Kentucky- Bobby Petrino has lost one game to Kentucky- at home in 2016. And legend has it that he still has nightmares about it nearly two years later. Cats by (negative) 90.

Not really much to add here. If you want to talk Indiana State linebackers, comment below and we can grab a beer.

https://twitter.com/theACCDN/status/1026626477083840512

50-50 Games

This is where the season will be decided. Most anyone in the country would probably agree with the assessment that the 5 “probable” wins are almost locks. So, that means that people picking Louisville to go 6-6 or 7-5 believe that the Cards will drop all but one or two of these remaining games.

But, let’s take a closer look, shall we?

Florida State- FSU returns a ton of talent this year. Let’s not act like just because Jimbo Fisher all but gave up last season, that the Seminoles don’t have studs at every position.

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Florida State got their guy in first-year head coach Willie Taggart. Cam Akers is likely the second best running back in the ACC, and Deondre Francois is back healthy at quarterback The defense will once again be no fun to deal with, like we’ve become accustomed to over the years.

The Seminoles should be solid this season, and definitely will not be an easy outting. That said, the Cards have had FSU’s number the last two years, and there’s just no way to tell just yet how Taggart will do after spending just one season at Oregon, and a few at South Florida. There is no reason that Louisville couldn’t win this clash at home.

Chance to win: 45%

Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech is not going to “wow” anyone, but they are fundamentally sound in every area. They are known for their ball control offense, and triple option running play. They will wear the Cards down by running it over and over, and will bring back a decent defense.

This is a game that the Cards should win. It is on a Friday night at home, and Georgia Tech does not have near the talent that Louisville does. That said, if they don’t bring their “A” game, this is easily a match up that the Yellow Jackets could steal. Not to mention, Louisville will be on a short week after playing Florida State just six days earlier.

Chance to win: 60%

at Boston College- The Cards have a long week going into the Boston College game. This could hurt them just as much as it benefits them. It will likely be an early afternoon game, and if they aren’t careful, Louisville could easily have a slip up like they did last season when they allowed 45 points in a shocking loss to the Eagles.

Do I think it will happen again? Probably not. But this isn’t likely to be a blow out by either team. Boston College has a formidable D, but Petrino has had no issues scoring on the Eagles the last four years. The problem last year came on the defensive end. Rising Sophomore running back AJ Dillon terrorized the Cards and their entire team really took advantage of some rather poor tackling.

Again, this is a more likely win than loss in my book. A ton of people have BC as their “sleeper” team, but if everyone thinks they are a sleeper, are they really? If Louisville’s defense can just make a few plays, this should be a situation where they can outscore the opponent, but that is easier said than done.

Chance to win: 60%

Wake Forest- Wake flat out embarrassed Louisville last year. Lamar Jackson kept them in the game, but John Wolford spun the rock, and their offense was unstoppable. Wake brings back some talent on offense, including all five of their solid offensive line, but losing Wolford is tough. Their offense should regress just a bit.

Wake’s D was miserable in the secondary last year. That’s not a recipe for success when they have to line up against Louisville’s outstanding receiving corps.

Again, the defense doesn’t have to be amazing against Wake Forest, just improved. That would be good enough for a home win against a team Petrino isn’t exactly fond of.

Chance to win: 70%

NC State- Another game where the Cards basically got walloped last season. Ryan Finley returns at quarterback, and the Wolfpack has some solid weapons.

However, the defense loses eight starters and it remains to be seen if they will be equipped to rebuild on that side of the ball. The loss of do-it-all running back Nyheim Hines hampers the Pack’s ability to keep opposing defenses honest.

To me, this is a true toss-up game going into the season, but the slight advantage goes to the Cards for home field.

Chance to win: 51%

Season Ceiling Predictions

Louisville has 5 or 6 games this season that they should flat out win. They are better than half the teams they play, they have more talent than half the teams they play, and they come into the season with something to prove.

Factoring out the two games Louisville is much more likely to lose than win, you are left with five “toss up” games. I think that Louisville wins four out of five of those games, which would put them at 9 wins and 3 losses on the season.

9-3 is not the stretch that people make it out to be, and with a little magic it could easily be 10 wins or more.

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That said, we are considering the true “ceiling” to be what they are truly capable of, and anything more than that amount would be a huge story line in college football.

Considering every factor, I will put Louisville’s ceiling at 10 wins.

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