Louisville basketball's play in January could decide NCAA tournament fate

Louisville basketball will need a strong January against some of the ACC’s weaker opponents, if there’s any chance at returning to the NCAA tournament come March.

We already know Louisville basketball had one of the most challenging schedules across the country in the non-conference, featuring matchups with five top 25 teams in Kentucky, Michigan State, Tennessee, Marquette and Indiana as well as other challenging mid-major opponents in Kent State, Vermont, and Lipscomb. Finishing 9-4 is by no means a bad look for Louisville, especially picking up wins against #9 Michigan State, Seton Hall, and Lipscomb, three likely tournament teams.

With the ACC play now officially here things are getting real for Louisville. Each game will matter as the Cards are a team squarely on the bubble with another absolutely brutal stretch coming in February that features UNC, Virginia Tech, FSU and Duke all in a 10 day stretch.

That makes Louisville’s eight games in January extremely important when it comes to building a strong tournament resume. The Cards get the ACC schedule kicked off on Saturday against a struggling Miami team who currently sits at 8-4.

After Miami the Cards have matchups against Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Boston College, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh (again), and finally Wake Forest. Of those eight games only two teams currently sit in the top 25 of both the KenPom rankings and the newly created NET rankings, which will be used by the NCAA tournament selection committee, those being North Carolina (#8 – KenPom, #16 NET) and North Carolina State (#21 – KenPom, #8 NET).

The rest of the schedule shakes out favorably for the Cards as they continue to grow into the team that Chris Mack wants them to be. The entire January schedule looks like this.

Miami:

#59 – KenPom, #94 Net

@ Pittsburgh:

#87 – KenPom, #69 Net

@ #14 UNC:

#7 – KenPom, #16 Net

Boston College:

#107 – KenPom, #143 Net

@ Georgia Tech:

#98 – KenPom, #113 Net

#18 NC State:

#20 – KenPom, #8 Net

Pittsburgh:

#87 – KenPom, #69 Net

@ Wake Forest:

#153 – KenPom, #189 Net

When looking at the January schedule it’s not too crazy to say that Louisville will be favored and expected to win in six of the matchups. It’s also not to crazy to say that January could be a month that seals the fate for Louisville.

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Getting wins for Louisville, as is the case for every other team, is of the upmost importance right now considering the stretch of games they’ll have in February, that includes Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, and others. Chris Mack has a team that is no doubt talented enough to be a tournament team, but as of now, it’s all about the numbers and building a quality resume, something that was a struggle last season for David Padgett & the Cards.

And while big wins are important, bad losses are just as important to a bubble team. Dropping a game against Miami, Pittsburgh, BC, Georgia Tech, or Wake Forest may prove to be the proverbial nail in the coffin for Louisville, a team projected to finish 11th in the ACC race.

There’s been a lot on the floor thus far that would make you believe that Louisville is a tournament team, but there’s also been a lot of question marks. When speaking to the media directly after the Cardinals 58-71 loss, Chris Mack kept it short and sweet – saying:

"“We’ve got to get better. We’ve got a heck of a week.” He went on to say, “We all know what the ACC has. It’s going to be a long, tough season. We can’t worry about this game after today. We have to get better from it and use today’s mistakes and help us in ACC play.”"

Heading into their first conference game on Sunday any hang over or carry over of bad habits from the Kentucky game could be costly. Whether it’s not finishing around the rim, playing “soft,” struggling to own the boards, or not getting to the free throw line, the Cards have to bring their best to the court throughout the remainder of the season if they want to get to the tournament.

With 4 losses already and the likelihood of picking up at least 8 more, the Cards don’t have the luxury of resting on their laurels at any point in ACC play. One loss to a Pittsburgh or Miami, could be the difference between home games in the NIT and playing in the NCAA tournament.

Next. Charlie’s Good Times: Louisville basketball falls to archrival Kentucky. dark

Louisville and Chris Mack will get a depleted Miami team on Sunday at the KFC Yum! Center coming off a devastating loss to North Carolina State last night.

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Louisville basketball’s play in January could decide NCAA tournament fate

By Jacob Lane | Jan 4, 2019