Louisville basketball: Reason for Cards fans to be alarmed yet?

Louisville basketball currently sits at 10-5 on the season, and 1-1 in the ACC after a solid but ugly win against Miami and a shocking loss to Pittsburgh. Is there a reason to be alarmed yet?

Take yourself back to before the season started. We all knew going in that nothing was guaranteed. New coach, new staff implementing new philosophies, new offensive and defensive schemes for the players to learn; this season already presented it’s share of challenges. There was undoubtedly going to be an adjustment period. Then add in the fact Chris Mack needed to fill the Louisville basketball roster with 3 graduate transfers.

Most believed and accepted the fact that this season was a “transition year” and the thought of a tourney bid for the ‘Big Dance’ seemed possible but not likely.

Fast forward to the beginning of December and many of us are looking at each other in disbelief and surprised. Without a doubt this was one of the 68 best teams and would certainly get a bid to the ‘Big Dance.’

With two Quadrant 1 wins over the ‘Fighting Tom Izzo’s of Michigan State and a gutty road win over a Seton Hall team (who has since gone on to beat Calipari’s “Cayuts” and a good St. John’s team), UofL and its fan’s tournament aspirations were very high. Added to UofL’ s resume is the fact that they have one Quadrant 2 win against Lipscomb and two Quadrant 3 wins against Kent St. and a tough Vermont team.

Then the month of December began to play itself out. Competition got tougher and the stakes got higher.

UofL would go on the road against the Hoosiers in Assembly Hall and fall just short losing 68-67. The Cards fought hard, but two problems currently plaguing this team began rearing their ugly head. Bad defense and the inability to get it done on the road. The Cards are 1-4 away from the YUM! Center (1-2 in Away games; 0-2 in Neutral Site games).

The Cards still rank 30th in the NET rankings after their loss to Pitt Wednesday night, but in a conference expected to send as many as 10 teams to the Big Dance, you can’t drop a game against the likes of a young Pitt squad. Wins are just too tough to come by.

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Give that Pitt Panthers team credit. They played really hard, out-hustling the Cards most of the night. The Cards again in consecutive games started slow and Pitt’s young guards thrived because of it. The Panthers played with confidence and answered the call every time the Cards clawed back into the game appearing poised to snatch victory.

The Panthers capitalized on the Cards inability to keep anyone in front of them on the perimeter. Pitt’s guards broke down Louisville’s perimeter defenders off the dribble, got into the paint at will and lived in the lane. Pitt also having success along the baseline, Coach Mack was forced to switch out of his “pack line” inspired defense and go to a 1-3-1 zone. This too proved to be an exercise of futility as the Cards continued to disappoint defensively.

Pittsburgh just found out too easy scoring at and around the basket while also having an above average night from beyond the 3 point arc. Faced with being down 10+ points most of the second half, a gutsy, “never-say-die” comeback where the Cards pushed the game to OT ultimately resulted in another example of the Cards inability to get it done on the road.

That takes us to Saturday’s game against the Tar Heels. UNC annually is one of the blue bloods of college basketball and this year is no different. The Tar Heels rank very high in almost every notable offensive category and Head Coach Roy Williams maybe has his fastest UNC team to date.

Williams’ teams and style dating back to Kansas have always excelled getting out in transition and getting fast break points. Against a team like the Tar Heels, the Cards can ill-afford a slow start once again. They must find a way to slow down the Tar Heel’s offense and keep pace with them on the scoreboard, or it’ll be a long game.

That includes not being a one-trick pony and settling for 3s. The Cards have to find some balance with their offensive production getting the ball into the interior around the paint for some higher percentage shots and easy baskets.

The Cards opened up as 12 point underdogs and winning at the Dean Dome is never an easy task for any opponent, no matter how good they are. It’s a tough venue to win at and quite the home court advantage.

These next stretch of games to finish out January are imperative for the Cardinals tournament chances. If they’re going to be dancing come March, they’re going to have to finish January strong because February’s schedule finishing out conference play is a ‘Murderer’s Row’ of who’s who that is littered throughout the Top 15 in the country currently.

Getting back on track, the Cards are going to have to recommit to the defensive aspect of the game and begin keeping opponents out of the lane. They must find a way to keep the opposition in front of them and not get broken down so easily off the dribble.

So is it time to be alarmed? The Cards next few games to close out January will be a great indicator. How they’ve played the past few games, if that team continues to show up, the Cards once again won’t be in the ‘Big Dance’ come March.

If the Cards can get back to how they played the early part of the season where they out-worked teams; where they embraced hustle and a tough mentality that Coach Mack has asked of them since day 1; only then will they get back on track to solidifying their chances of being one of the 68 teams to be dancing come March. – GO CARDS!